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Tropical Storm Watch issued for the Lower and Middle Florida Keys from Key West to W of Channel 5 Bridge, and for the Dry Tortugas #RAFAEL #FLWX
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 26 (Milton) , Major: 26 (Milton) Florida - Any: 26 (Milton) Major: 26 (Milton)
TS Rafael
ADV#8 9:00 am EDT
17.8N 78.6W
Wind: 60MPH
Pres: 994mb
Moving:
Nw at 13 mph
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MikeCAdministrator
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Posts: 4635
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched
      Sun Jun 13 2010 09:40 AM

Fixed, thanks for the mention.


The wave is over some abnormally warm water, but it still lacks the convection near the "center", roughly 7.6N / 34W. The overall flow is really large. It'll probably take another day to get wrapped in enough around the center to become a real candidate for development -- but I'm not sold. One positive factor for development is it's pretty wet, no real dry air around it. The models are interesting on it, GFS is on the weak side, NOGAPs tends to be stronger. The SHIPS intensity model is a bit too much right now.

Looking at water vapor imagery, It won't have that large of a window for development (see the northwestern side of the area), which is probably the strongest reason it won't develop much if at all.

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched MikeCAdministrator Sun Jun 13 2010 09:40 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched Storm Hunter   Sun Jun 20 2010 04:42 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched Doombot!   Sun Jun 20 2010 01:17 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched JoshuaK   Sat Jun 19 2010 10:24 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched MichaelA   Sat Jun 19 2010 09:08 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched berrywr   Sat Jun 19 2010 03:30 AM
. * * Re: links and 92L berrywr   Sat Jun 19 2010 03:18 AM
. * * Re: links and 92L Old Sailor   Fri Jun 18 2010 09:58 PM
. * * links and 92L danielwAdministrator   Fri Jun 18 2010 07:07 PM
. * * links saltysenior   Fri Jun 18 2010 06:32 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched danielwAdministrator   Fri Jun 18 2010 12:32 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched hogrunr   Thu Jun 17 2010 04:29 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched Ed in Va   Thu Jun 17 2010 03:30 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched danielwAdministrator   Thu Jun 17 2010 08:32 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched JoshuaK   Thu Jun 17 2010 07:54 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched MikeCAdministrator   Wed Jun 16 2010 12:15 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched Adam S   Wed Jun 16 2010 12:06 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched doug   Wed Jun 16 2010 11:17 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched danielwAdministrator   Wed Jun 16 2010 09:20 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched rmbjoe1954   Wed Jun 16 2010 08:36 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched Storm Hunter   Wed Jun 16 2010 12:51 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched Lamar-Plant City   Wed Jun 16 2010 12:24 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched Ed DunhamAdministrator   Tue Jun 15 2010 11:43 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched cieldumort   Tue Jun 15 2010 11:01 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched hogrunr   Tue Jun 15 2010 08:14 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched danielwAdministrator   Tue Jun 15 2010 07:54 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched cieldumort   Tue Jun 15 2010 04:11 PM
. * * Re: 92L and GOM? Storm Hunter   Tue Jun 15 2010 03:31 PM
. * * Re: 92L and GOM? hogrunr   Tue Jun 15 2010 02:26 PM
. * * 92L and GOM? danielwAdministrator   Tue Jun 15 2010 12:10 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched cieldumort   Tue Jun 15 2010 03:20 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched Storm Hunter   Tue Jun 15 2010 01:55 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched Ed DunhamAdministrator   Mon Jun 14 2010 10:11 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched Joeyfl   Mon Jun 14 2010 09:22 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched jessiej   Mon Jun 14 2010 08:46 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched Hugh   Mon Jun 14 2010 08:37 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched MikeCAdministrator   Mon Jun 14 2010 06:18 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched Hugh   Mon Jun 14 2010 05:01 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched Storm Hunter   Mon Jun 14 2010 04:29 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched cieldumort   Mon Jun 14 2010 12:05 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched MichaelA   Mon Jun 14 2010 11:37 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched MikeCAdministrator   Mon Jun 14 2010 09:02 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched Hugh   Mon Jun 14 2010 08:57 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched MikeCAdministrator   Mon Jun 14 2010 08:06 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched Hugh   Mon Jun 14 2010 07:46 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched MikeCAdministrator   Mon Jun 14 2010 06:51 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched weathernet   Mon Jun 14 2010 03:15 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched Clark   Sun Jun 13 2010 08:12 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched Hugh   Sun Jun 13 2010 07:52 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched typhoon_tip   Sun Jun 13 2010 07:35 PM
. * * Re: Invest 92L Appears To Be Organizing Better Hugh   Sun Jun 13 2010 01:29 PM
. * * Re: Invest 92L Appears To Be Organizing Better MichaelA   Sun Jun 13 2010 01:18 PM
. * * Re: Invest 92L Appears To Be Organizing Better scottsvb   Sun Jun 13 2010 11:30 AM
. * * Re: Invest 92L Appears To Be Organizing Better Scottsvb1   Sun Jun 13 2010 11:27 AM
. * * Re: Invest 92L Appears To Be Organizing Better Hugh   Sun Jun 13 2010 10:38 AM
. * * Invest 92L Appears To Be Organizing Better CoconutCandy   Sun Jun 13 2010 10:12 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched MikeCAdministrator   Sun Jun 13 2010 09:40 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched marco67red   Sun Jun 13 2010 09:31 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched MikeCAdministrator   Sun Jun 13 2010 08:45 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched danielwAdministrator   Sun Jun 13 2010 08:21 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched cieldumort   Sun Jun 13 2010 03:38 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched Storm Hunter   Sun Jun 13 2010 01:20 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched LoisCane   Sun Jun 13 2010 12:49 AM

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