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First day of the Atlantic Hurricane season, no tropical activity on the horizon in the near term. Mid August is usually when things pick up.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 277 (Idalia) , Major: 277 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 277 (Idalia) Major: 277 (Idalia)
 


Archives 2010s >> 2010 News Talkbacks

typhoon_tip
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Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched
      Sun Jun 13 2010 11:35 PM

NHC has as of 2PM elevated their probability to 50% and I feel rightfully so. It is important not to be hung up on climatology; climate does not dictate what any given event will do, but is cumulative result of many seasons, then normalized.

SSTs
As others have gone great strides to point out and is common knowledge at this point, the SSTs in the region between the Puerto Rico archipelago and Africa are in +AMO.

SAL:
There does not appear to be any SAL toxicity in the vicinity of the ingest regions for the zygote cyclone. There is some SAL related material observable here: http://cimss.ssec.wi...vetrak/sal.html ...but this is consistent with normal background contaminant - it would appear - and not directly associated with the burgeoning circulation of the system, either.

Deep layer shear:
Nearly non-existent at this time when studying the upper most elevation wind overlay at NHC's satellite website: http://www.ssd.noaa..../flash-avn.html The mlv cut is difficult to ascertain because cloud tags are used to determine vectors and they are obscured by a fairly healthy U/A anvil debris field; therefor, have to rely on modeling (as far as I am aware) to determine if there is a pesky intervening layer of shear.

Madden-Julian Oscillation related tropospheric tendency :
Currently the Atlantic Basin et al is in a neutral-positive 200mb anomaly state, http://www.cpc.ncep....m_monthly.shtml, which lay-term is usually conducive to sustaining, not compensating, for upward vertical motion in ambient field. Any system on the rail service between African and the western Basin would avail of that circumstance.

Integrated energy:
The circulation envelopes a huge area. Larger systems tend to spin up slower. However, given to their immensity they are somewhat more resistant to negative impacts. It all really comes down to momentum and larger systems having more of it, but there are also papers that discuss why in more technical terms.

I have not spent much time looking at models, but unless they are parameterized deliberately I can't imagine they would to exceptionally well until such time as the system is initialized in the input more sufficiently.

John

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched MikeCAdministrator Sun Jun 13 2010 11:35 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched Storm Hunter   Sun Jun 20 2010 08:42 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched Doombot!   Sun Jun 20 2010 05:17 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched JoshuaK   Sun Jun 20 2010 02:24 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched MichaelA   Sat Jun 19 2010 01:08 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched berrywr   Sat Jun 19 2010 07:30 AM
. * * Re: links and 92L berrywr   Sat Jun 19 2010 07:18 AM
. * * Re: links and 92L Old Sailor   Sat Jun 19 2010 01:58 AM
. * * links and 92L danielwAdministrator   Fri Jun 18 2010 11:07 PM
. * * links saltysenior   Fri Jun 18 2010 10:32 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched danielwAdministrator   Fri Jun 18 2010 04:32 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched hogrunr   Thu Jun 17 2010 08:29 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched Ed in Va   Thu Jun 17 2010 07:30 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched danielwAdministrator   Thu Jun 17 2010 12:32 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched JoshuaK   Thu Jun 17 2010 11:54 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched MikeCAdministrator   Wed Jun 16 2010 04:15 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched Adam S   Wed Jun 16 2010 04:06 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched doug   Wed Jun 16 2010 03:17 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched danielwAdministrator   Wed Jun 16 2010 01:20 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched rmbjoe1954   Wed Jun 16 2010 12:36 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched Storm Hunter   Wed Jun 16 2010 04:51 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched Lamar-Plant City   Wed Jun 16 2010 04:24 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched Ed DunhamAdministrator   Wed Jun 16 2010 03:43 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched cieldumort   Wed Jun 16 2010 03:01 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched hogrunr   Wed Jun 16 2010 12:14 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched danielwAdministrator   Tue Jun 15 2010 11:54 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched cieldumort   Tue Jun 15 2010 08:11 PM
. * * Re: 92L and GOM? Storm Hunter   Tue Jun 15 2010 07:31 PM
. * * Re: 92L and GOM? hogrunr   Tue Jun 15 2010 06:26 PM
. * * 92L and GOM? danielwAdministrator   Tue Jun 15 2010 04:10 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched cieldumort   Tue Jun 15 2010 07:20 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched Storm Hunter   Tue Jun 15 2010 05:55 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched Ed DunhamAdministrator   Tue Jun 15 2010 02:11 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched Joeyfl   Tue Jun 15 2010 01:22 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched jessiej   Tue Jun 15 2010 12:46 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched Hugh   Tue Jun 15 2010 12:37 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched MikeCAdministrator   Mon Jun 14 2010 10:18 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched Hugh   Mon Jun 14 2010 09:01 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched Storm Hunter   Mon Jun 14 2010 08:29 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched cieldumort   Mon Jun 14 2010 04:05 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched MichaelA   Mon Jun 14 2010 03:37 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched MikeCAdministrator   Mon Jun 14 2010 01:02 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched Hugh   Mon Jun 14 2010 12:57 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched MikeCAdministrator   Mon Jun 14 2010 12:06 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched Hugh   Mon Jun 14 2010 11:46 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched MikeCAdministrator   Mon Jun 14 2010 10:51 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched weathernet   Mon Jun 14 2010 07:15 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched Clark   Mon Jun 14 2010 12:12 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched Hugh   Sun Jun 13 2010 11:52 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched typhoon_tip   Sun Jun 13 2010 11:35 PM
. * * Re: Invest 92L Appears To Be Organizing Better Hugh   Sun Jun 13 2010 05:29 PM
. * * Re: Invest 92L Appears To Be Organizing Better MichaelA   Sun Jun 13 2010 05:18 PM
. * * Re: Invest 92L Appears To Be Organizing Better scottsvb   Sun Jun 13 2010 03:30 PM
. * * Re: Invest 92L Appears To Be Organizing Better Scottsvb1   Sun Jun 13 2010 03:27 PM
. * * Re: Invest 92L Appears To Be Organizing Better Hugh   Sun Jun 13 2010 02:38 PM
. * * Invest 92L Appears To Be Organizing Better CoconutCandy   Sun Jun 13 2010 02:12 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched MikeCAdministrator   Sun Jun 13 2010 01:40 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched marco67red   Sun Jun 13 2010 01:31 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched MikeCAdministrator   Sun Jun 13 2010 12:45 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched danielwAdministrator   Sun Jun 13 2010 12:21 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched cieldumort   Sun Jun 13 2010 07:38 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched Storm Hunter   Sun Jun 13 2010 05:20 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched LoisCane   Sun Jun 13 2010 04:49 AM

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