cieldumort
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Posts: 2497
Loc: Austin, Tx
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Re: Low Latitude Tropical Cyclones
Mon Jun 14 2010 03:06 AM
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Context is everything, and the more intensely I review records going back even just a few short years ago, the less faith I have in the historical records. Nonetheless, a bona fide early season tropical cyclone formation south of 10N.. east of 50W still has to be quite a feat, especially, especially this early in a season, however imperfect the records may be.
Having said that, it looks as if 92L may be trying to recenter its LLC more closely aligned with the deepest convection tonight, which has been existing to the north of the old center. A similar event taking place last overnight appeared to help cause the entire feature to temporarily shift track a little more to the northwest, than wnw or w.
In some regards, 92L is tonight reminding me of pre-Hurricane Humberto (2007). With its persistent, healthy surface low encountering some exceptionally low shear and within very favorable TPW, while over fully supportive SSTs - I do see a real chance for fairly rapid development up until 92L bumps into the shear monster still at least a day or two away.
The largest inhibiting factors until that encounter would be its size, followed closely by its closeness to the equator.
As for position, if re-centering concludes, my best guess puts the coc now closer to 9N 38.5W as of 6 UTC.
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