Wow......., what an interesting year this might turn into.
Though the NHC 2:00 a.m. read as follows
...... "HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...."
I certainly cannot help but see a marked improvement in the overall consolidation of convection. The anticipated diurnal processes at hand, not only has there been an increase in center co-located convection, but am seeing a classic wrap around hook beginning to take place on the west side of what appears to be an evolving and better defined center. Furthermore, I would argue for increasing evidence of the start of some banding features coming in from the south. Whether or not a special advisory is issued for this system during these early hours, is mute at this point. However given the increased convection within such an envelope system, and without any immediate impending UL shear, as far as I am concerned we have a bona-fide depression out there. If in fact a true core consolidation is finally taking place with this large system, than not only might the "up and down" pulsating cease, but I would be frankly surprised if we did not have our first named TS during the next 24 hours.
Frankly, I am less in awe of such an eastern forming tropical cyclone in June, or the conditions already at hand aiding in this systems development. Mostly, I can't get over the size and maturity of such a tropical wave, so early and so far east. For the most part, we are all assuming this Atlantic Hurricane Season to be busy. Perhaps a greater number of storms to be strong ( if for no other reason than the potential increase in over all activity ). However, might this early large envelope tropical system be also indicative of the greater majority of this seasons tropical systems? I vaguely recall Ana from 1979, being the first storm that season and yet forming pretty far to the east, yet if memory doesn't fail me ( though it might! ) I seem to recall it being a fairly small system. Only time will tell what the MOST critical concern will be - "WHERE" will the predominant tracks take this years systems. Though not stamped in stone, I believe history has shown that larger tropical cyclones ( despite potentially feeling greater impact by the Coriolis effect ) tend to often have longer tracks with less polar bias.
One final oddity regarding 92L, or at least one to me. During most Hurricane Seasons, one long range model or another ( usually GFS ), typically dishes up a number of "ghost storms". Tropical systems that for days, are forecast to develop, only to show up perhaps as a wave, and then simply dissipate. This year we already are aware of foreboding SST's and the much advertised demise of El Nino. Yet despite this, certainly no real overly aggressive and deep systems yet forecasted by long term models. In fact, perhaps only NOGAPS ( ironically conservative ) to have hinted towards this current system. My recollection is that most longer range models would far easier pick up more accurately on such larger and more organized waves. So, it just strikes me as curious that such a larger "Cape Verde" type envelope system develop so easily materialize and develop ( given climatology ), yet without the more typically anticipated "modelcane" being well advertised well in advance.
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