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cieldumort
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Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched
      Mon Jun 14 2010 12:05 PM

92L appears to have consolidated somewhat under the deeper convection of the very late overnight and this morning. Positions still carrying the cyclone at anywhere under 10N are probably quite obsolete at this point, as the center of 92L is now traveling along and/or within deeper convection, and perhaps already somewhere in the vicinity of 10.5 to 10.8 N and 40.1 to 40.5 or so W.

As of 1500 UTC, 92L now resembles in many ways many of those short-lived tropical depressions or weak tropical storms of the central Pacific. I think that it is regrettable that QS is no longer online, as this could very well perhaps by now have confirmed the existence of a primary, satisfying llc. 92L sure looks as close to "there" as I have just about ever seen. Convection is maybe still a bit wanting, but I've certainly seen worse on other systems befitting of the title.

Dr. Rick Knabb, now TWC's tropical expert (replacing Dr. Steve Lyons who has gone back to work for the NWS), was on just a little while ago opining that there is little to no shear ahead of 92L. I find that statement a bit puzzling, as it appears that 92L is already starting to feel the first bites of increased shear and a little less precipitable water, and that a zone of much higher shear and drier air exists not far to its north and northwest (up ahead), and while some models want to lift the trof imparting that shear, model shear forecasts also do not guarantee that will go away any time in the very near future - at the rate 92L is traveling interaction with this razor could easily occur before any such lifting away of the shear takes place.

Should the trof indeed pull up and allow 92L to remain coddled within its envelope of low shear and high water vapor content, the outlook for the islands later this week or next could get worrisome.

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched MikeCAdministrator Mon Jun 14 2010 12:05 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched Storm Hunter   Sun Jun 20 2010 04:42 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched Doombot!   Sun Jun 20 2010 01:17 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched JoshuaK   Sat Jun 19 2010 10:24 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched MichaelA   Sat Jun 19 2010 09:08 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched berrywr   Sat Jun 19 2010 03:30 AM
. * * Re: links and 92L berrywr   Sat Jun 19 2010 03:18 AM
. * * Re: links and 92L Old Sailor   Fri Jun 18 2010 09:58 PM
. * * links and 92L danielwAdministrator   Fri Jun 18 2010 07:07 PM
. * * links saltysenior   Fri Jun 18 2010 06:32 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched danielwAdministrator   Fri Jun 18 2010 12:32 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched hogrunr   Thu Jun 17 2010 04:29 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched Ed in Va   Thu Jun 17 2010 03:30 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched danielwAdministrator   Thu Jun 17 2010 08:32 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched JoshuaK   Thu Jun 17 2010 07:54 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched MikeCAdministrator   Wed Jun 16 2010 12:15 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched Adam S   Wed Jun 16 2010 12:06 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched doug   Wed Jun 16 2010 11:17 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched danielwAdministrator   Wed Jun 16 2010 09:20 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched rmbjoe1954   Wed Jun 16 2010 08:36 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched Storm Hunter   Wed Jun 16 2010 12:51 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched Lamar-Plant City   Wed Jun 16 2010 12:24 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched Ed DunhamAdministrator   Tue Jun 15 2010 11:43 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched cieldumort   Tue Jun 15 2010 11:01 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched hogrunr   Tue Jun 15 2010 08:14 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched danielwAdministrator   Tue Jun 15 2010 07:54 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched cieldumort   Tue Jun 15 2010 04:11 PM
. * * Re: 92L and GOM? Storm Hunter   Tue Jun 15 2010 03:31 PM
. * * Re: 92L and GOM? hogrunr   Tue Jun 15 2010 02:26 PM
. * * 92L and GOM? danielwAdministrator   Tue Jun 15 2010 12:10 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched cieldumort   Tue Jun 15 2010 03:20 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched Storm Hunter   Tue Jun 15 2010 01:55 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched Ed DunhamAdministrator   Mon Jun 14 2010 10:11 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched Joeyfl   Mon Jun 14 2010 09:22 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched jessiej   Mon Jun 14 2010 08:46 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched Hugh   Mon Jun 14 2010 08:37 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched MikeCAdministrator   Mon Jun 14 2010 06:18 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched Hugh   Mon Jun 14 2010 05:01 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched Storm Hunter   Mon Jun 14 2010 04:29 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched cieldumort   Mon Jun 14 2010 12:05 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched MichaelA   Mon Jun 14 2010 11:37 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched MikeCAdministrator   Mon Jun 14 2010 09:02 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched Hugh   Mon Jun 14 2010 08:57 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched MikeCAdministrator   Mon Jun 14 2010 08:06 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched Hugh   Mon Jun 14 2010 07:46 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched MikeCAdministrator   Mon Jun 14 2010 06:51 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched weathernet   Mon Jun 14 2010 03:15 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched Clark   Sun Jun 13 2010 08:12 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched Hugh   Sun Jun 13 2010 07:52 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched typhoon_tip   Sun Jun 13 2010 07:35 PM
. * * Re: Invest 92L Appears To Be Organizing Better Hugh   Sun Jun 13 2010 01:29 PM
. * * Re: Invest 92L Appears To Be Organizing Better MichaelA   Sun Jun 13 2010 01:18 PM
. * * Re: Invest 92L Appears To Be Organizing Better scottsvb   Sun Jun 13 2010 11:30 AM
. * * Re: Invest 92L Appears To Be Organizing Better Scottsvb1   Sun Jun 13 2010 11:27 AM
. * * Re: Invest 92L Appears To Be Organizing Better Hugh   Sun Jun 13 2010 10:38 AM
. * * Invest 92L Appears To Be Organizing Better CoconutCandy   Sun Jun 13 2010 10:12 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched MikeCAdministrator   Sun Jun 13 2010 09:40 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched marco67red   Sun Jun 13 2010 09:31 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched MikeCAdministrator   Sun Jun 13 2010 08:45 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched danielwAdministrator   Sun Jun 13 2010 08:21 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched cieldumort   Sun Jun 13 2010 03:38 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched Storm Hunter   Sun Jun 13 2010 01:20 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched LoisCane   Sun Jun 13 2010 12:49 AM

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