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Invest 94L just northeast of the ABC islands in the Caribbean moving west, 20% development chance. Another area near the Cabo Verde islands has a 20% chance to develop over the next 7 days.

Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 300 (Idalia) , Major: 300 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 300 (Idalia) Major: 300 (Idalia)

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Archives 2010s >> 2010 News Talkbacks

Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)

Reged:
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL

Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched
Mon Jun 14 2010 10:11 PM

While it is true that the Invest area has seen a recent flareup of convection, the overall structure of the system has not shown the development necessary for classification as a tropical cyclone. The general appearance is still ragged and lacks organization. Regarding intensity, here is the latest output of the low-level model suite from NHC:

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922010) 20100615 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100615 0000 100615 1200 100616 0000 100616 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.3N 42.1W 12.3N 44.6W 13.3N 47.1W 14.2N 49.5W
BAMD 11.3N 42.1W 12.6N 44.2W 13.8N 46.0W 14.8N 47.5W
BAMM 11.3N 42.1W 12.3N 44.4W 13.4N 46.5W 14.2N 48.5W
LBAR 11.3N 42.1W 12.9N 44.4W 14.4N 46.8W 15.7N 49.1W
SHIP 25KTS 26KTS 28KTS 28KTS
DSHP 25KTS 26KTS 28KTS 28KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100617 0000 100618 0000 100619 0000 100620 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.1N 51.9W 16.8N 56.8W 18.5N 61.6W 19.8N 66.3W
BAMD 15.5N 48.6W 16.3N 50.9W 17.0N 53.4W 17.7N 55.3W
BAMM 14.9N 50.4W 16.2N 54.4W 17.4N 58.0W 18.4N 61.3W
LBAR 16.8N 51.2W 19.1N 54.6W 21.9N 56.9W 23.9N 59.0W
SHIP 29KTS 30KTS 28KTS 22KTS
DSHP 29KTS 30KTS 28KTS 22KTS

These latest track forecasts would all move a very weak system to the north of the Caribbean Islands. Looking at the windshear forecast

Unisys 48hr Windshear Forecast

and the forecast points, the system has until about 17/00Z (a couple of days) to regenerate and develop before it encounters a zone of stronger windshear. It is fair to note that the zone of shear is anticipated to be on the decline in the 36 to 72 hour timeframe, and it is also fair to note that model intensity forcasts are seldom very accurate.
ED

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched	MikeC	Mon Jun 14 2010 10:11 PM
Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched	Storm Hunter	Sun Jun 20 2010 04:42 PM
Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched	Doombot!	Sun Jun 20 2010 01:17 AM
Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched	JoshuaK	Sat Jun 19 2010 10:24 PM
Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched	MichaelA	Sat Jun 19 2010 09:08 AM
Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched	berrywr	Sat Jun 19 2010 03:30 AM
Re: links and 92L	berrywr	Sat Jun 19 2010 03:18 AM
Re: links and 92L	Old Sailor	Fri Jun 18 2010 09:58 PM
links and 92L	danielw	Fri Jun 18 2010 07:07 PM
links	saltysenior	Fri Jun 18 2010 06:32 PM
Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched	danielw	Fri Jun 18 2010 12:32 AM
Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched	hogrunr	Thu Jun 17 2010 04:29 PM
Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched	Ed in Va	Thu Jun 17 2010 03:30 PM
Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched	danielw	Thu Jun 17 2010 08:32 AM
Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched	JoshuaK	Thu Jun 17 2010 07:54 AM
Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched	MikeC	Wed Jun 16 2010 12:15 PM
Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched	Adam S	Wed Jun 16 2010 12:06 PM
Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched	doug	Wed Jun 16 2010 11:17 AM
Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched	danielw	Wed Jun 16 2010 09:20 AM
Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched	rmbjoe1954	Wed Jun 16 2010 08:36 AM
Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched	Storm Hunter	Wed Jun 16 2010 12:51 AM
Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched	Lamar-Plant City	Wed Jun 16 2010 12:24 AM
Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched	Ed Dunham	Tue Jun 15 2010 11:43 PM
Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched	cieldumort	Tue Jun 15 2010 11:01 PM
Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched	hogrunr	Tue Jun 15 2010 08:14 PM
Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched	danielw	Tue Jun 15 2010 07:54 PM
Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched	cieldumort	Tue Jun 15 2010 04:11 PM
Re: 92L and GOM?	Storm Hunter	Tue Jun 15 2010 03:31 PM
Re: 92L and GOM?	hogrunr	Tue Jun 15 2010 02:26 PM
92L and GOM?	danielw	Tue Jun 15 2010 12:10 PM
Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched	cieldumort	Tue Jun 15 2010 03:20 AM
Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched	Storm Hunter	Tue Jun 15 2010 01:55 AM
Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched	Ed Dunham	Mon Jun 14 2010 10:11 PM
Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched	Joeyfl	Mon Jun 14 2010 09:22 PM
Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched	jessiej	Mon Jun 14 2010 08:46 PM
Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched	Hugh	Mon Jun 14 2010 08:37 PM
Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched	MikeC	Mon Jun 14 2010 06:18 PM
Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched	Hugh	Mon Jun 14 2010 05:01 PM
Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched	Storm Hunter	Mon Jun 14 2010 04:29 PM
Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched	cieldumort	Mon Jun 14 2010 12:05 PM
Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched	MichaelA	Mon Jun 14 2010 11:37 AM
Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched	MikeC	Mon Jun 14 2010 09:02 AM
Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched	Hugh	Mon Jun 14 2010 08:57 AM
Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched	MikeC	Mon Jun 14 2010 08:06 AM
Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched	Hugh	Mon Jun 14 2010 07:46 AM
Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched	MikeC	Mon Jun 14 2010 06:51 AM
Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched	weathernet	Mon Jun 14 2010 03:15 AM
Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched	Clark	Sun Jun 13 2010 08:12 PM
Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched	Hugh	Sun Jun 13 2010 07:52 PM
Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched	typhoon_tip	Sun Jun 13 2010 07:35 PM
Re: Invest 92L Appears To Be Organizing Better	Hugh	Sun Jun 13 2010 01:29 PM
Re: Invest 92L Appears To Be Organizing Better	MichaelA	Sun Jun 13 2010 01:18 PM
Re: Invest 92L Appears To Be Organizing Better	scottsvb	Sun Jun 13 2010 11:30 AM
Re: Invest 92L Appears To Be Organizing Better	Scottsvb1	Sun Jun 13 2010 11:27 AM
Re: Invest 92L Appears To Be Organizing Better	Hugh	Sun Jun 13 2010 10:38 AM
Invest 92L Appears To Be Organizing Better	CoconutCandy	Sun Jun 13 2010 10:12 AM
Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched	MikeC	Sun Jun 13 2010 09:40 AM
Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched	marco67red	Sun Jun 13 2010 09:31 AM
Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched	MikeC	Sun Jun 13 2010 08:45 AM
Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched	danielw	Sun Jun 13 2010 08:21 AM
Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched	cieldumort	Sun Jun 13 2010 03:38 AM
Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched	Storm Hunter	Sun Jun 13 2010 01:20 AM
Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched	LoisCane	Sun Jun 13 2010 12:49 AM

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