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Archives 2010s >> 2010 News Talkbacks

Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged:
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched
      Tue Jun 15 2010 02:11 AM

While it is true that the Invest area has seen a recent flareup of convection, the overall structure of the system has not shown the development necessary for classification as a tropical cyclone. The general appearance is still ragged and lacks organization. Regarding intensity, here is the latest output of the low-level model suite from NHC:

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922010) 20100615 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100615 0000 100615 1200 100616 0000 100616 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.3N 42.1W 12.3N 44.6W 13.3N 47.1W 14.2N 49.5W
BAMD 11.3N 42.1W 12.6N 44.2W 13.8N 46.0W 14.8N 47.5W
BAMM 11.3N 42.1W 12.3N 44.4W 13.4N 46.5W 14.2N 48.5W
LBAR 11.3N 42.1W 12.9N 44.4W 14.4N 46.8W 15.7N 49.1W
SHIP 25KTS 26KTS 28KTS 28KTS
DSHP 25KTS 26KTS 28KTS 28KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100617 0000 100618 0000 100619 0000 100620 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.1N 51.9W 16.8N 56.8W 18.5N 61.6W 19.8N 66.3W
BAMD 15.5N 48.6W 16.3N 50.9W 17.0N 53.4W 17.7N 55.3W
BAMM 14.9N 50.4W 16.2N 54.4W 17.4N 58.0W 18.4N 61.3W
LBAR 16.8N 51.2W 19.1N 54.6W 21.9N 56.9W 23.9N 59.0W
SHIP 29KTS 30KTS 28KTS 22KTS
DSHP 29KTS 30KTS 28KTS 22KTS


These latest track forecasts would all move a very weak system to the north of the Caribbean Islands. Looking at the windshear forecast

Unisys 48hr Windshear Forecast

and the forecast points, the system has until about 17/00Z (a couple of days) to regenerate and develop before it encounters a zone of stronger windshear. It is fair to note that the zone of shear is anticipated to be on the decline in the 36 to 72 hour timeframe, and it is also fair to note that model intensity forcasts are seldom very accurate.
ED

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched MikeCAdministrator Tue Jun 15 2010 02:11 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched Storm Hunter   Sun Jun 20 2010 08:42 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched Doombot!   Sun Jun 20 2010 05:17 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched JoshuaK   Sun Jun 20 2010 02:24 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched MichaelA   Sat Jun 19 2010 01:08 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched berrywr   Sat Jun 19 2010 07:30 AM
. * * Re: links and 92L berrywr   Sat Jun 19 2010 07:18 AM
. * * Re: links and 92L Old Sailor   Sat Jun 19 2010 01:58 AM
. * * links and 92L danielwAdministrator   Fri Jun 18 2010 11:07 PM
. * * links saltysenior   Fri Jun 18 2010 10:32 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched danielwAdministrator   Fri Jun 18 2010 04:32 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched hogrunr   Thu Jun 17 2010 08:29 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched Ed in Va   Thu Jun 17 2010 07:30 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched danielwAdministrator   Thu Jun 17 2010 12:32 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched JoshuaK   Thu Jun 17 2010 11:54 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched MikeCAdministrator   Wed Jun 16 2010 04:15 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched Adam S   Wed Jun 16 2010 04:06 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched doug   Wed Jun 16 2010 03:17 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched danielwAdministrator   Wed Jun 16 2010 01:20 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched rmbjoe1954   Wed Jun 16 2010 12:36 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched Storm Hunter   Wed Jun 16 2010 04:51 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched Lamar-Plant City   Wed Jun 16 2010 04:24 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched Ed DunhamAdministrator   Wed Jun 16 2010 03:43 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched cieldumort   Wed Jun 16 2010 03:01 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched hogrunr   Wed Jun 16 2010 12:14 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched danielwAdministrator   Tue Jun 15 2010 11:54 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched cieldumort   Tue Jun 15 2010 08:11 PM
. * * Re: 92L and GOM? Storm Hunter   Tue Jun 15 2010 07:31 PM
. * * Re: 92L and GOM? hogrunr   Tue Jun 15 2010 06:26 PM
. * * 92L and GOM? danielwAdministrator   Tue Jun 15 2010 04:10 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched cieldumort   Tue Jun 15 2010 07:20 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched Storm Hunter   Tue Jun 15 2010 05:55 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched Ed DunhamAdministrator   Tue Jun 15 2010 02:11 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched Joeyfl   Tue Jun 15 2010 01:22 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched jessiej   Tue Jun 15 2010 12:46 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched Hugh   Tue Jun 15 2010 12:37 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched MikeCAdministrator   Mon Jun 14 2010 10:18 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched Hugh   Mon Jun 14 2010 09:01 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched Storm Hunter   Mon Jun 14 2010 08:29 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched cieldumort   Mon Jun 14 2010 04:05 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched MichaelA   Mon Jun 14 2010 03:37 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched MikeCAdministrator   Mon Jun 14 2010 01:02 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched Hugh   Mon Jun 14 2010 12:57 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched MikeCAdministrator   Mon Jun 14 2010 12:06 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched Hugh   Mon Jun 14 2010 11:46 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched MikeCAdministrator   Mon Jun 14 2010 10:51 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched weathernet   Mon Jun 14 2010 07:15 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched Clark   Mon Jun 14 2010 12:12 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched Hugh   Sun Jun 13 2010 11:52 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched typhoon_tip   Sun Jun 13 2010 11:35 PM
. * * Re: Invest 92L Appears To Be Organizing Better Hugh   Sun Jun 13 2010 05:29 PM
. * * Re: Invest 92L Appears To Be Organizing Better MichaelA   Sun Jun 13 2010 05:18 PM
. * * Re: Invest 92L Appears To Be Organizing Better scottsvb   Sun Jun 13 2010 03:30 PM
. * * Re: Invest 92L Appears To Be Organizing Better Scottsvb1   Sun Jun 13 2010 03:27 PM
. * * Re: Invest 92L Appears To Be Organizing Better Hugh   Sun Jun 13 2010 02:38 PM
. * * Invest 92L Appears To Be Organizing Better CoconutCandy   Sun Jun 13 2010 02:12 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched MikeCAdministrator   Sun Jun 13 2010 01:40 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched marco67red   Sun Jun 13 2010 01:31 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched MikeCAdministrator   Sun Jun 13 2010 12:45 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched danielwAdministrator   Sun Jun 13 2010 12:21 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched cieldumort   Sun Jun 13 2010 07:38 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched Storm Hunter   Sun Jun 13 2010 05:20 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched LoisCane   Sun Jun 13 2010 04:49 AM

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