While it is true that the Invest area has seen a recent flareup of convection, the overall structure of the system has not shown the development necessary for classification as a tropical cyclone. The general appearance is still ragged and lacks organization. Regarding intensity, here is the latest output of the low-level model suite from NHC:
and the forecast points, the system has until about 17/00Z (a couple of days) to regenerate and develop before it encounters a zone of stronger windshear. It is fair to note that the zone of shear is anticipated to be on the decline in the 36 to 72 hour timeframe, and it is also fair to note that model intensity forcasts are seldom very accurate. ED
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