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#93L now a small better defined circulation with deep convection set to come ashore N of Tampico, MX. Recon investigating. Still 40% odds.

Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 299 (Idalia) , Major: 299 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 299 (Idalia) Major: 299 (Idalia)

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Archives 2010s >> 2010 News Talkbacks

cieldumort
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Posts: 2321
Loc: Austin, Tx

Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched
Tue Jun 15 2010 11:01 PM

As for tropical cyclone development, I think the GOM looks pretty much benign through at least the next 48 hours. Upper level winds are simply unfavorable for development at this time, despite the existence of at least two surface features, bountiful moisture, and very toasty SSTs. However, scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms will probably be ongoing, off and on.

I wanted to chime back in on 92L for a moment - Systems like this... often never a good idea to write them off too fast. And judging by the first real buoy data on this feature, taken at a time when it had already been significantly diminished and disrupted by shear and dry air, it looks that 92L very well may have been blowing at or (probably) even above 35 knots for a good while when the surface circulation was almost definitely closed off during the overnight last night and early this morning.

Now tonight, it does appear that the trof which had been imparting so much shear above 10-15N is lifting out a little, and weakening some. Also, because 92L has traveled along with such a massive plume of deep moisture, the dry air which had started to get injected into the system throughout the day Tuesday, looks to be getting pushed back to the west, as 92L advances.

Most recently, very deep convection has blown back up over at least the northern semicircle, probably in no small part fanned by the increased southwesterly shear. This level of increased shear can sometimes actually enhance tropical cyclone formation (think of blowing on a smoldering pile of leaves and needles, so as to get a fire started), and I believe that, at least at the moment, we are witnessing this tonight.

Stay tuned...

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched	MikeC	Tue Jun 15 2010 11:01 PM
Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched	Storm Hunter	Sun Jun 20 2010 04:42 PM
Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched	Doombot!	Sun Jun 20 2010 01:17 AM
Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched	JoshuaK	Sat Jun 19 2010 10:24 PM
Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched	MichaelA	Sat Jun 19 2010 09:08 AM
Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched	berrywr	Sat Jun 19 2010 03:30 AM
Re: links and 92L	berrywr	Sat Jun 19 2010 03:18 AM
Re: links and 92L	Old Sailor	Fri Jun 18 2010 09:58 PM
links and 92L	danielw	Fri Jun 18 2010 07:07 PM
links	saltysenior	Fri Jun 18 2010 06:32 PM
Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched	danielw	Fri Jun 18 2010 12:32 AM
Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched	hogrunr	Thu Jun 17 2010 04:29 PM
Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched	Ed in Va	Thu Jun 17 2010 03:30 PM
Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched	danielw	Thu Jun 17 2010 08:32 AM
Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched	JoshuaK	Thu Jun 17 2010 07:54 AM
Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched	MikeC	Wed Jun 16 2010 12:15 PM
Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched	Adam S	Wed Jun 16 2010 12:06 PM
Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched	doug	Wed Jun 16 2010 11:17 AM
Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched	danielw	Wed Jun 16 2010 09:20 AM
Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched	rmbjoe1954	Wed Jun 16 2010 08:36 AM
Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched	Storm Hunter	Wed Jun 16 2010 12:51 AM
Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched	Lamar-Plant City	Wed Jun 16 2010 12:24 AM
Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched	Ed Dunham	Tue Jun 15 2010 11:43 PM
Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched	cieldumort	Tue Jun 15 2010 11:01 PM
Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched	hogrunr	Tue Jun 15 2010 08:14 PM
Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched	danielw	Tue Jun 15 2010 07:54 PM
Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched	cieldumort	Tue Jun 15 2010 04:11 PM
Re: 92L and GOM?	Storm Hunter	Tue Jun 15 2010 03:31 PM
Re: 92L and GOM?	hogrunr	Tue Jun 15 2010 02:26 PM
92L and GOM?	danielw	Tue Jun 15 2010 12:10 PM
Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched	cieldumort	Tue Jun 15 2010 03:20 AM
Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched	Storm Hunter	Tue Jun 15 2010 01:55 AM
Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched	Ed Dunham	Mon Jun 14 2010 10:11 PM
Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched	Joeyfl	Mon Jun 14 2010 09:22 PM
Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched	jessiej	Mon Jun 14 2010 08:46 PM
Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched	Hugh	Mon Jun 14 2010 08:37 PM
Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched	MikeC	Mon Jun 14 2010 06:18 PM
Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched	Hugh	Mon Jun 14 2010 05:01 PM
Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched	Storm Hunter	Mon Jun 14 2010 04:29 PM
Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched	cieldumort	Mon Jun 14 2010 12:05 PM
Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched	MichaelA	Mon Jun 14 2010 11:37 AM
Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched	MikeC	Mon Jun 14 2010 09:02 AM
Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched	Hugh	Mon Jun 14 2010 08:57 AM
Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched	MikeC	Mon Jun 14 2010 08:06 AM
Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched	Hugh	Mon Jun 14 2010 07:46 AM
Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched	MikeC	Mon Jun 14 2010 06:51 AM
Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched	weathernet	Mon Jun 14 2010 03:15 AM
Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched	Clark	Sun Jun 13 2010 08:12 PM
Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched	Hugh	Sun Jun 13 2010 07:52 PM
Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched	typhoon_tip	Sun Jun 13 2010 07:35 PM
Re: Invest 92L Appears To Be Organizing Better	Hugh	Sun Jun 13 2010 01:29 PM
Re: Invest 92L Appears To Be Organizing Better	MichaelA	Sun Jun 13 2010 01:18 PM
Re: Invest 92L Appears To Be Organizing Better	scottsvb	Sun Jun 13 2010 11:30 AM
Re: Invest 92L Appears To Be Organizing Better	Scottsvb1	Sun Jun 13 2010 11:27 AM
Re: Invest 92L Appears To Be Organizing Better	Hugh	Sun Jun 13 2010 10:38 AM
Invest 92L Appears To Be Organizing Better	CoconutCandy	Sun Jun 13 2010 10:12 AM
Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched	MikeC	Sun Jun 13 2010 09:40 AM
Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched	marco67red	Sun Jun 13 2010 09:31 AM
Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched	MikeC	Sun Jun 13 2010 08:45 AM
Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched	danielw	Sun Jun 13 2010 08:21 AM
Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched	cieldumort	Sun Jun 13 2010 03:38 AM
Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched	Storm Hunter	Sun Jun 13 2010 01:20 AM
Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched	LoisCane	Sun Jun 13 2010 12:49 AM

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