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Tropical Storm Watch issued for the Lower and Middle Florida Keys from Key West to W of Channel 5 Bridge, and for the Dry Tortugas #RAFAEL #FLWX
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 26 (Milton) , Major: 26 (Milton) Florida - Any: 26 (Milton) Major: 26 (Milton)
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ADV#10 11:00 am EDT
38.5N 16.2W
Wind: 35MPH
Pres: 999mb
Moving:
Ene at 17 mph
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TS Rafael
ADV#5A 6:00 pm EDT
15.8N 76.9W
Wind: 45MPH
Pres: 1000mb
Moving:
Nnw at 9 mph
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hogrunr
Weather Guru


Reged:
Posts: 153
Loc: Spring, TX
Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched
      Thu Jun 17 2010 04:29 PM

It seems as though the shear is actually feeding moisture into the system right now. You can see from the WV imagery that it is bordered by very dry air to the north. For it to have a chance of doing anything, it needs to get out of the shear it is currently under (30-50 knots). It needs to make it past 70W.

11pm CST Edit: The convection is much stronger as to be expected overnight. Also to note though, the shear that was present over the system has begun a slight shift to the north. The system is now under approx. 20-30 knot shear instead of the previous range of up to 50 knots. It will be interesting to see what data can be gathered from the islands and nearby buoy's as this passes by.

There is a gap in all of the Satellite data, so it is hard to tell what the movement of the system is right now, but it seems to be West to WNW. The NHC has the system listed as having a 20% chance of development in the next 48 hours, still not much, but higher than the 0% they had it listed as in the previous reports.

CIMSS Shear Map

Edited by hogrunr (Fri Jun 18 2010 12:03 AM)

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched MikeCAdministrator Thu Jun 17 2010 04:29 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched Storm Hunter   Sun Jun 20 2010 04:42 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched Doombot!   Sun Jun 20 2010 01:17 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched JoshuaK   Sat Jun 19 2010 10:24 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched MichaelA   Sat Jun 19 2010 09:08 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched berrywr   Sat Jun 19 2010 03:30 AM
. * * Re: links and 92L berrywr   Sat Jun 19 2010 03:18 AM
. * * Re: links and 92L Old Sailor   Fri Jun 18 2010 09:58 PM
. * * links and 92L danielwAdministrator   Fri Jun 18 2010 07:07 PM
. * * links saltysenior   Fri Jun 18 2010 06:32 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched danielwAdministrator   Fri Jun 18 2010 12:32 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched hogrunr   Thu Jun 17 2010 04:29 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched Ed in Va   Thu Jun 17 2010 03:30 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched danielwAdministrator   Thu Jun 17 2010 08:32 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched JoshuaK   Thu Jun 17 2010 07:54 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched MikeCAdministrator   Wed Jun 16 2010 12:15 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched Adam S   Wed Jun 16 2010 12:06 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched doug   Wed Jun 16 2010 11:17 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched danielwAdministrator   Wed Jun 16 2010 09:20 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched rmbjoe1954   Wed Jun 16 2010 08:36 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched Storm Hunter   Wed Jun 16 2010 12:51 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched Lamar-Plant City   Wed Jun 16 2010 12:24 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched Ed DunhamAdministrator   Tue Jun 15 2010 11:43 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched cieldumort   Tue Jun 15 2010 11:01 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched hogrunr   Tue Jun 15 2010 08:14 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched danielwAdministrator   Tue Jun 15 2010 07:54 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched cieldumort   Tue Jun 15 2010 04:11 PM
. * * Re: 92L and GOM? Storm Hunter   Tue Jun 15 2010 03:31 PM
. * * Re: 92L and GOM? hogrunr   Tue Jun 15 2010 02:26 PM
. * * 92L and GOM? danielwAdministrator   Tue Jun 15 2010 12:10 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched cieldumort   Tue Jun 15 2010 03:20 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched Storm Hunter   Tue Jun 15 2010 01:55 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched Ed DunhamAdministrator   Mon Jun 14 2010 10:11 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched Joeyfl   Mon Jun 14 2010 09:22 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched jessiej   Mon Jun 14 2010 08:46 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched Hugh   Mon Jun 14 2010 08:37 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched MikeCAdministrator   Mon Jun 14 2010 06:18 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched Hugh   Mon Jun 14 2010 05:01 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched Storm Hunter   Mon Jun 14 2010 04:29 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched cieldumort   Mon Jun 14 2010 12:05 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched MichaelA   Mon Jun 14 2010 11:37 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched MikeCAdministrator   Mon Jun 14 2010 09:02 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched Hugh   Mon Jun 14 2010 08:57 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched MikeCAdministrator   Mon Jun 14 2010 08:06 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched Hugh   Mon Jun 14 2010 07:46 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched MikeCAdministrator   Mon Jun 14 2010 06:51 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched weathernet   Mon Jun 14 2010 03:15 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched Clark   Sun Jun 13 2010 08:12 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched Hugh   Sun Jun 13 2010 07:52 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched typhoon_tip   Sun Jun 13 2010 07:35 PM
. * * Re: Invest 92L Appears To Be Organizing Better Hugh   Sun Jun 13 2010 01:29 PM
. * * Re: Invest 92L Appears To Be Organizing Better MichaelA   Sun Jun 13 2010 01:18 PM
. * * Re: Invest 92L Appears To Be Organizing Better scottsvb   Sun Jun 13 2010 11:30 AM
. * * Re: Invest 92L Appears To Be Organizing Better Scottsvb1   Sun Jun 13 2010 11:27 AM
. * * Re: Invest 92L Appears To Be Organizing Better Hugh   Sun Jun 13 2010 10:38 AM
. * * Invest 92L Appears To Be Organizing Better CoconutCandy   Sun Jun 13 2010 10:12 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched MikeCAdministrator   Sun Jun 13 2010 09:40 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched marco67red   Sun Jun 13 2010 09:31 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched MikeCAdministrator   Sun Jun 13 2010 08:45 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched danielwAdministrator   Sun Jun 13 2010 08:21 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched cieldumort   Sun Jun 13 2010 03:38 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched Storm Hunter   Sun Jun 13 2010 01:20 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched LoisCane   Sun Jun 13 2010 12:49 AM

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