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Invest 95L in the Tropical Atlantic now has a 90% chance to develop over the next 7 days, and a 70% chance to do so in the next 48 hours. Recon scheduled for Sunday morning.a
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 302 (Idalia) , Major: 302 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 302 (Idalia) Major: 302 (Idalia)
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berrywr
Weather Analyst


Reged:
Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL
Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched
      Sat Jun 19 2010 03:30 AM

Tropical Waves generally are shallow systems therefore steered by wind currents at & below 5000 feet or 850 milibars. You can see this by viewing upper level analysis and satellite imagery loops as low level features may in fact be going in completely opposite directions than for example the tops of thunderstorms. In satellite imagery posted within this thread you will note a very strong thunderstorm in the classic cell shape and some very, very cold tops; however you will note on the western edge how sharp it goes from very cold tops to non-existent in short order and quite a bit of blow off and debris to its east. Upper level winds are quite strong from the west literally shearing the system. The wave while capable of developing thunderstorms cannot remain cohesive from surface to the upper levels thus the wave is not in an environment for development into a depression at this time. As I posted a moment ago...if the wave continues to hold itself together there may be an opportunity beyond 72 to 96 hours as upper ridges aloft will be centered over the Mid-South and off the coast of FL with upper level troughing sandwiched between the two. For the moment wind shear is at a minimum over the entire area. Assuming the upper level trough remains weak; by weak not generating upper level wind shear an opportunity will exists as it steers itself from the hostile envelope it's currently in as of 19/00Z. I hope this helps?

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched MikeCAdministrator Sat Jun 19 2010 03:30 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched Storm Hunter   Sun Jun 20 2010 04:42 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched Doombot!   Sun Jun 20 2010 01:17 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched JoshuaK   Sat Jun 19 2010 10:24 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched MichaelA   Sat Jun 19 2010 09:08 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched berrywr   Sat Jun 19 2010 03:30 AM
. * * Re: links and 92L berrywr   Sat Jun 19 2010 03:18 AM
. * * Re: links and 92L Old Sailor   Fri Jun 18 2010 09:58 PM
. * * links and 92L danielwAdministrator   Fri Jun 18 2010 07:07 PM
. * * links saltysenior   Fri Jun 18 2010 06:32 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched danielwAdministrator   Fri Jun 18 2010 12:32 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched hogrunr   Thu Jun 17 2010 04:29 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched Ed in Va   Thu Jun 17 2010 03:30 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched danielwAdministrator   Thu Jun 17 2010 08:32 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched JoshuaK   Thu Jun 17 2010 07:54 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched MikeCAdministrator   Wed Jun 16 2010 12:15 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched Adam S   Wed Jun 16 2010 12:06 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched doug   Wed Jun 16 2010 11:17 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched danielwAdministrator   Wed Jun 16 2010 09:20 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched rmbjoe1954   Wed Jun 16 2010 08:36 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched Storm Hunter   Wed Jun 16 2010 12:51 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched Lamar-Plant City   Wed Jun 16 2010 12:24 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched Ed DunhamAdministrator   Tue Jun 15 2010 11:43 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched cieldumort   Tue Jun 15 2010 11:01 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched hogrunr   Tue Jun 15 2010 08:14 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched danielwAdministrator   Tue Jun 15 2010 07:54 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched cieldumort   Tue Jun 15 2010 04:11 PM
. * * Re: 92L and GOM? Storm Hunter   Tue Jun 15 2010 03:31 PM
. * * Re: 92L and GOM? hogrunr   Tue Jun 15 2010 02:26 PM
. * * 92L and GOM? danielwAdministrator   Tue Jun 15 2010 12:10 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched cieldumort   Tue Jun 15 2010 03:20 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched Storm Hunter   Tue Jun 15 2010 01:55 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched Ed DunhamAdministrator   Mon Jun 14 2010 10:11 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched Joeyfl   Mon Jun 14 2010 09:22 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched jessiej   Mon Jun 14 2010 08:46 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched Hugh   Mon Jun 14 2010 08:37 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched MikeCAdministrator   Mon Jun 14 2010 06:18 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched Hugh   Mon Jun 14 2010 05:01 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched Storm Hunter   Mon Jun 14 2010 04:29 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched cieldumort   Mon Jun 14 2010 12:05 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched MichaelA   Mon Jun 14 2010 11:37 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched MikeCAdministrator   Mon Jun 14 2010 09:02 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched Hugh   Mon Jun 14 2010 08:57 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched MikeCAdministrator   Mon Jun 14 2010 08:06 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched Hugh   Mon Jun 14 2010 07:46 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched MikeCAdministrator   Mon Jun 14 2010 06:51 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched weathernet   Mon Jun 14 2010 03:15 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched Clark   Sun Jun 13 2010 08:12 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched Hugh   Sun Jun 13 2010 07:52 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched typhoon_tip   Sun Jun 13 2010 07:35 PM
. * * Re: Invest 92L Appears To Be Organizing Better Hugh   Sun Jun 13 2010 01:29 PM
. * * Re: Invest 92L Appears To Be Organizing Better MichaelA   Sun Jun 13 2010 01:18 PM
. * * Re: Invest 92L Appears To Be Organizing Better scottsvb   Sun Jun 13 2010 11:30 AM
. * * Re: Invest 92L Appears To Be Organizing Better Scottsvb1   Sun Jun 13 2010 11:27 AM
. * * Re: Invest 92L Appears To Be Organizing Better Hugh   Sun Jun 13 2010 10:38 AM
. * * Invest 92L Appears To Be Organizing Better CoconutCandy   Sun Jun 13 2010 10:12 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched MikeCAdministrator   Sun Jun 13 2010 09:40 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched marco67red   Sun Jun 13 2010 09:31 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched MikeCAdministrator   Sun Jun 13 2010 08:45 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched danielwAdministrator   Sun Jun 13 2010 08:21 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched cieldumort   Sun Jun 13 2010 03:38 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched Storm Hunter   Sun Jun 13 2010 01:20 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Wave Being Watched LoisCane   Sun Jun 13 2010 12:49 AM

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