Tropical Waves generally are shallow systems therefore steered by wind currents at & below 5000 feet or 850 milibars. You can see this by viewing upper level analysis and satellite imagery loops as low level features may in fact be going in completely opposite directions than for example the tops of thunderstorms. In satellite imagery posted within this thread you will note a very strong thunderstorm in the classic cell shape and some very, very cold tops; however you will note on the western edge how sharp it goes from very cold tops to non-existent in short order and quite a bit of blow off and debris to its east. Upper level winds are quite strong from the west literally shearing the system. The wave while capable of developing thunderstorms cannot remain cohesive from surface to the upper levels thus the wave is not in an environment for development into a depression at this time. As I posted a moment ago...if the wave continues to hold itself together there may be an opportunity beyond 72 to 96 hours as upper ridges aloft will be centered over the Mid-South and off the coast of FL with upper level troughing sandwiched between the two. For the moment wind shear is at a minimum over the entire area. Assuming the upper level trough remains weak; by weak not generating upper level wind shear an opportunity will exists as it steers itself from the hostile envelope it's currently in as of 19/00Z. I hope this helps?
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