Models. The only model I personally give any credit at this point is the GFDL. Fluid dynamics model. It hasn't changed much. No further east than Appalachicola,FL and no further west than South Marsh Island, LA. Use the loop at SFWMD on the main page.
Have to wait and see what the 06 and 12Z models do with respect to consistancy.
The Yucatan Channel is roughly 600 miles from the mouth of the Mississippi River. Divide that by the storm movement speed and you get a rough estimate of landfall approximation.
600/ 15mph is 30 hours 600/ 10 mph is 60 hours
48 hours after the leading edge of the storm enters the GOM someone is going to be getting wet and windy. Exception at this point is Texas.
SATELLITE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE RAINFALL ESTIMATES NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0015 UTC SAT JUN 26 2010
SYSTEM NAME/IDENTIFIER...T.D. ONE (AL012010)
MAX RAINFALL DATE/TIME LOCATION MOTION MEAN LAST ----------- ------------ ------ ------- ------- 26/0015 UTC 16.6N 83.9W 295/07 14.3 IN 7.0 IN
LAST RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION...
DISTANCE LEFT OF CENTER RIGHT OF CENTER ------------- --------------- --------------- 0 TO 1 DEGREE 1.0 TO 3.5 IN 0.7 TO 2.2 IN 1 TO 2 DEGREE 1.1 TO 7.0 IN 0.1 TO 1.0 IN 2 TO 3 DEGREE 1.0 TO 3.2 IN 0.7 TO 3.3 IN 3 TO 4 DEGREE 0.0 TO 2.4 IN 0.0 TO 2.4 IN
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Re: Tropical Depression One forms in West Caribbean
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