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Archives 2010s >> 2010 Forecast Lounge

berrywr
Weather Analyst

Reged:
Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL

Re: TD#1 Forecast Lounge
Sat Jun 26 2010 07:29 AM

The 26/00Z package this evening is all over the place with TD1. The GFS initialized an inverted upper trough over the Yucatan and closes this feature off by H+72 (28/00Z). Currently UW-CIMMS is analyzing 50 knots of speed shear west to east along 22N latitude and it either weakens or gets out of the way or Alex will become a shallow system until it does do either and it becomes a question of how much he is likely to regenerate before arriving at the coast. Oil spill interests do not want this system taking a track to the coast of Texas or W LA. This is one scenario where a N to NE track might be in the overall best interest of everybody along the coast of the spill. This system has to deal with a few things; one a landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula, two, the upper low developing to its west and shear along the 22N corridor. Models are in two camps for the moment and if there is another wild card it's the evolution of the Eastern US longwave trough and while light it is reflected as far south as the Northern Gulf coast; certainly it is a pattern change from what the Southeast USA has been experience with this prolong heatwave. The biggest obstacle is the shear; it's all mute if it doesn't abate.

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Alex Forecast Lounge	MikeC	Sat Jun 26 2010 07:29 AM
Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex	Rick99	Tue Jun 29 2010 02:50 AM
Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex	Rick99	Tue Jun 29 2010 03:17 AM
Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex	allan	Wed Jun 30 2010 03:21 PM
Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex	mwillis	Wed Jun 30 2010 03:48 PM
Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex	danielw	Tue Jun 29 2010 03:07 AM
this is a huge storm	SeaMule	Tue Jun 29 2010 01:31 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche	Rick99	Mon Jun 28 2010 03:02 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche	Rick99	Tue Jun 29 2010 02:00 AM
Re: TD#1 Forecast Lounge	berrywr	Sat Jun 26 2010 07:29 AM
Re: TD#1 Forecast Lounge	Ed in Va	Sat Jun 26 2010 01:35 AM
Re: TD#1 Forecast Lounge	TheOtherRick	Sat Jun 26 2010 01:56 AM
Re: TD#1 Forecast Lounge	berrywr	Sat Jun 26 2010 07:41 AM
Re: TD#1 Forecast Lounge	TheOtherRick	Sun Jun 27 2010 01:13 PM
Re: TD#1 Forecast Lounge	TheOtherRick	Sat Jun 26 2010 03:06 AM

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