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Archives 2010s >> 2010 Forecast Lounge
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berrywr
Weather Analyst


Reged:
Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL
Re: TD#1 Forecast Lounge
      Sat Jun 26 2010 03:29 AM

The 26/00Z package this evening is all over the place with TD1. The GFS initialized an inverted upper trough over the Yucatan and closes this feature off by H+72 (28/00Z). Currently UW-CIMMS is analyzing 50 knots of speed shear west to east along 22N latitude and it either weakens or gets out of the way or Alex will become a shallow system until it does do either and it becomes a question of how much he is likely to regenerate before arriving at the coast. Oil spill interests do not want this system taking a track to the coast of Texas or W LA. This is one scenario where a N to NE track might be in the overall best interest of everybody along the coast of the spill. This system has to deal with a few things; one a landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula, two, the upper low developing to its west and shear along the 22N corridor. Models are in two camps for the moment and if there is another wild card it's the evolution of the Eastern US longwave trough and while light it is reflected as far south as the Northern Gulf coast; certainly it is a pattern change from what the Southeast USA has been experience with this prolong heatwave. The biggest obstacle is the shear; it's all mute if it doesn't abate.

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Alex Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator Sat Jun 26 2010 03:29 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex Rick99   Mon Jun 28 2010 10:50 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex Rick99   Mon Jun 28 2010 11:17 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex allan   Wed Jun 30 2010 11:21 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex mwillis   Wed Jun 30 2010 11:48 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex danielwAdministrator   Mon Jun 28 2010 11:07 PM
. * * this is a huge storm SeaMule   Mon Jun 28 2010 09:31 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche Rick99   Mon Jun 28 2010 11:02 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche Rick99   Mon Jun 28 2010 10:00 PM
. * * Re: TD#1 Forecast Lounge berrywr   Sat Jun 26 2010 03:29 AM
. * * Re: TD#1 Forecast Lounge Ed in Va   Fri Jun 25 2010 09:35 PM
. * * Re: TD#1 Forecast Lounge TheOtherRick   Fri Jun 25 2010 09:56 PM
. * * Re: TD#1 Forecast Lounge berrywr   Sat Jun 26 2010 03:41 AM
. * * Re: TD#1 Forecast Lounge TheOtherRick   Sun Jun 27 2010 09:13 AM
. * * Re: TD#1 Forecast Lounge TheOtherRick   Fri Jun 25 2010 11:06 PM

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