Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


The Atlantic is quiet
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 44 (Milton) , Major: 44 (Milton) Florida - Any: 44 (Milton) Major: 44 (Milton)
None
COMMUNICATION
STORM DATA
CONTENT
FOLLOW US
 

You are not logged in. [Login] Other Forums · Search · Active Topics
New user · Who's Online · FAQ · Rules · Calendar

Archives 2010s >> 2010 Forecast Lounge
Previous thread Previous   View all threads Index   Next thread Next   Flat Mode Flat  

berrywr
Weather Analyst


Reged:
Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL
Re: TD#1 Forecast Lounge
      Sat Jun 26 2010 03:41 AM

You're correct, GFS has it plotted near the FL coast. The feature to the left is the GFS initializing an inverted upper trough over the Yucatan Peninsula and closing it off in about 72 hours which I believe is why it has Alex near FL on day 5. I spoke of this in the lounge; we cannot dismiss the shear that is currently near 22N latitude stretching from west to east. For the moment, TD1/Alex won't survive the track into the GOM in the here and now. Don't get me wrong it will enter the GOM but as a shallow system. None of the models are taking this system to hurricane strength other than the GFDL. A track to the west of the spill is not in the best interest of all concerned; a track towards FL while it will freak the daylights out of everybody isn't a bad thing for the oil on the surface given the winds ahead of the storm and a trajectory towards FL...initially they would be from the east but eventually a FL landfall would allow winds to back (counter clock) from east to northeast to north to northwest. A TX or TX/LA approach will initiate a fetch of south and southeast winds and some piling of water into all points east...assuming Alex is of any significance in development.

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"

Post Extras Print Post   Remind Me!     Notify Moderator


Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Alex Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator Sat Jun 26 2010 03:41 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex Rick99   Mon Jun 28 2010 10:50 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex Rick99   Mon Jun 28 2010 11:17 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex allan   Wed Jun 30 2010 11:21 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex mwillis   Wed Jun 30 2010 11:48 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex danielwAdministrator   Mon Jun 28 2010 11:07 PM
. * * this is a huge storm SeaMule   Mon Jun 28 2010 09:31 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche Rick99   Mon Jun 28 2010 11:02 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche Rick99   Mon Jun 28 2010 10:00 PM
. * * Re: TD#1 Forecast Lounge berrywr   Sat Jun 26 2010 03:29 AM
. * * Re: TD#1 Forecast Lounge Ed in Va   Fri Jun 25 2010 09:35 PM
. * * Re: TD#1 Forecast Lounge TheOtherRick   Fri Jun 25 2010 09:56 PM
. * * Re: TD#1 Forecast Lounge berrywr   Sat Jun 26 2010 03:41 AM
. * * Re: TD#1 Forecast Lounge TheOtherRick   Sun Jun 27 2010 09:13 AM
. * * Re: TD#1 Forecast Lounge TheOtherRick   Fri Jun 25 2010 11:06 PM

Extra information
0 registered and 6 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  



Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating:
Thread views: 9427

Rate this thread

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center