First, a review of the last few position points: 27/06Z 18.0N 89.0W 27/09Z 18.3N 89.4W 27/12Z 18.4N 89.9W 27/15Z 18.6N 90.6W (projected)
At 14Z the storm is already probably close to the projected 15Z position, so its a conservative estimate.
At 27/09Z, the forecast position for 27/18Z was 19.1N 90.6W, but the storm center is already south of that point by about 30 miles. Thats only a 9-hour forecast, but the 9-hour point has consistently been too far to the north. If you miss the 9-hour point by a half degree, the entire forecast track is off. Sometimes when you forecast by the models rather than the meteorology you lose - but thats a subject for another time.
Since 27/09Z, Alex has been moving more to the west to west northwest rather than the northwest - perhaps just a wobble (although I doubt it since wobbles are normally seen in strong systems). For Alex, even a wobble at this time is important since it could influence just how much time Alex will have over the GOM. ED
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