The NHC noted this track variance in its 10 am CDT discussion:
WHILE THE SHORT-TERM MOTION OF ALEX APPEARS ALMOST DUE WEST...A LONGER-TERM INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST... 295 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS....A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. .....
ALL THAT BEING SAID...THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 36 HOURS DUE TO THE INITIAL MOTION...AND BEYOND THAT TIME IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND CLOSE TO THE TVCN MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
ALL OF THE MODEL UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK OF ALEX OFFERS A REMINDER TO NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK...PARTICULARLY IN THE EXTENDED PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHERE AVERAGE FORECAST ERRORS CAN BE 200 TO 300 MILES.
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