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#93L now a small better defined circulation with deep convection set to come ashore N of Tampico, MX. Recon investigating. Still 40% odds.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 299 (Idalia) , Major: 299 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 299 (Idalia) Major: 299 (Idalia)
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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


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Posts: 576
Re: TS Alex
      Sun Jun 27 2010 02:38 PM

The 12z guidance: I don't believe the models are doing a very good job with Alex, despite seeing a reasonably well clustered vision by the various model types (sans the Euro), for a vestigial circulation to re-emerge over the eastern Cam. Bay on a NW trajectory. Looking at the observed deep layer steering field it would seem such a motion would be premature - we'll see. Also, it almost appears that what a few of these models, HWRF and GFDL for example, are doing is actually shearing off a piece of the llv vorticity and using that to redevelop, which does not seem too plausible given to the current singularly cohesive circulation structure. That aside, I am finding it intriguing where the models are getting this NW motion from, which if it is going to work out that way we would probably be seeing that beginning to materialize this afternoon. The deep layer steering field shows fairly impressive ridge curvature to the N of Alex, which counters that expectation.

I was just studying the high resolution visible loops, as well as IR, and the best observation I could make has Alex on due west motion ...almost ever so slightly south of W if imagination got in the way. It also appears to be wobbling some, though.

Alex has a very good circulation presentation that does not appeal as one that is to be dismantled before potentially tapping into the BOC fuel source. All other parameters actually support TC genesis, as others have noted. From my perspective, given the in tact structure and assuming this doesn't stall before getting what remains of a "core" nearer to the coast I see restrengthening a real possibility.

Also, seeing as the models are going S Texas to the upper TX Coast (per the CMC), it is obviously a good idea to keep an eye on this.

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Tropical Storm Alex Now in Gulf MikeCAdministrator Sun Jun 27 2010 02:38 PM
. * * Re: Alex Continues Toward The WNW typhoon_tip   Sun Jun 27 2010 10:42 PM
. * * Re: Alex Continues Toward The WNW MikeCAdministrator   Sun Jun 27 2010 10:40 PM
. * * Re: Alex Continues Toward The WNW Hugh   Sun Jun 27 2010 10:35 PM
. * * Re: Alex Continues Toward The WNW MikeCAdministrator   Sun Jun 27 2010 10:32 PM
. * * Re: Alex Continues Toward The WNW mwillis   Sun Jun 27 2010 09:39 PM
. * * Re: Alex Continues Toward The WNW Storm Hunter   Sun Jun 27 2010 09:35 PM
. * * Re: Alex Continues Toward The WNW Storm Hunter   Sun Jun 27 2010 09:16 PM
. * * Re: Alex Continues Toward The WNW Hugh   Sun Jun 27 2010 09:07 PM
. * * Re: Alex Continues Toward The WNW TheOtherRick   Sun Jun 27 2010 09:06 PM
. * * Re: Alex Continues Toward The WNW WeatherNut   Sun Jun 27 2010 08:56 PM
. * * Re: Alex Continues Toward The WNW Storm Hunter   Sun Jun 27 2010 08:56 PM
. * * Re: Alex Continues Toward The WNW Storm Hunter   Sun Jun 27 2010 08:41 PM
. * * Re: Alex Continues Toward The WNW typhoon_tip   Sun Jun 27 2010 08:38 PM
. * * Re: Alex Continues Toward The WNW typhoon_tip   Sun Jun 27 2010 08:33 PM
. * * convection firing 360 SeaMule   Sun Jun 27 2010 08:20 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Alex Landfalls in Belize Storm Hunter   Sun Jun 27 2010 08:14 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Alex Landfalls in Belize Hugh   Sun Jun 27 2010 08:02 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Alex Landfalls in Belize Storm Hunter   Sun Jun 27 2010 08:01 PM
. * * Re: Alex Continues Toward The WNW Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sun Jun 27 2010 08:01 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Alex Landfalls in Belize Storm Hunter   Sun Jun 27 2010 07:54 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Alex Landfalls in Belize WeatherNut   Sun Jun 27 2010 07:51 PM
. * * Re: zoom in on the RGB Storm Hunter   Sun Jun 27 2010 07:51 PM
. * * zoom in on the RGB SeaMule   Sun Jun 27 2010 07:39 PM
. * * Re: Alex Continues Toward The WNW Hugh   Sun Jun 27 2010 07:31 PM
. * * Re: Alex Continues Toward The WNW Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sun Jun 27 2010 07:23 PM
. * * Re: Alex Continues Toward The WNW Hugh   Sun Jun 27 2010 07:20 PM
. * * Re: Alex Continues Toward The WNW TheOtherRick   Sun Jun 27 2010 07:15 PM
. * * Re: Alex Continues Toward The WNW Hugh   Sun Jun 27 2010 07:09 PM
. * * Re: Alex Continues Toward The WNW Storm Hunter   Sun Jun 27 2010 06:47 PM
. * * Re: Alex Continues Toward The WNW Hugh   Sun Jun 27 2010 06:34 PM
. * * Re: Alex Continues Toward The WNW Storm Hunter   Sun Jun 27 2010 06:20 PM
. * * Re: Alex Continues Toward The WNW analyst   Sun Jun 27 2010 05:41 PM
. * * Re: Alex Continues Toward The WNW Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sun Jun 27 2010 05:38 PM
. * * Re: Alex Continues Toward The WNW WeatherNut   Sun Jun 27 2010 05:25 PM
. * * Re: Alex Continues Toward The WNW WeatherNut   Sun Jun 27 2010 05:21 PM
. * * Re: Alex Continues Toward The WNW Storm Hunter   Sun Jun 27 2010 05:19 PM
. * * Re: Alex Continues Toward The WNW CLWeather   Sun Jun 27 2010 05:16 PM
. * * Re: Alex Continues Toward The WNW typhoon_tip   Sun Jun 27 2010 05:09 PM
. * * Re: Alex Continues Toward The WNW danielwAdministrator   Sun Jun 27 2010 03:51 PM
. * * Re: Alex Continues Toward The WNW LoisCane   Sun Jun 27 2010 03:28 PM
. * * Re: Alex Continues Toward The WNW LoisCane   Sun Jun 27 2010 03:26 PM
. * * Re: Alex Continues Toward The WNW SirCane   Sun Jun 27 2010 03:06 PM
. * * Re: Alex Continues Toward The WNW berrywr   Sun Jun 27 2010 02:54 PM
. * * Re: Alex Continues Toward The WNW SeaMule   Sun Jun 27 2010 02:50 PM
. * * Re: Alex Continues Toward The WNW danielwAdministrator   Sun Jun 27 2010 02:39 PM
. * * Re: TS Alex typhoon_tip   Sun Jun 27 2010 02:38 PM
. * * Re: Alex Continues Toward The WNW danielwAdministrator   Sun Jun 27 2010 12:48 PM
. * * Re: Alex Continues Toward The WNW the analyst   Sun Jun 27 2010 12:37 PM
. * * Re: Alex Continues Toward The WNW WeatherNut   Sun Jun 27 2010 12:28 PM
. * * Re: Alex Continues Toward The WNW mcgowanmc   Sun Jun 27 2010 12:20 PM
. * * Re: Alex Continues Toward The WNW hogrunr   Sun Jun 27 2010 11:06 AM
. * * Re: Alex Continues Toward The WNW danielwAdministrator   Sun Jun 27 2010 11:00 AM
. * * Re: Alex Continues Toward The WNW stormtiger   Sun Jun 27 2010 10:52 AM
. * * Re: Alex Continues Toward The WNW hogrunr   Sun Jun 27 2010 10:48 AM
. * * Alex Continues Toward The WNW Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sun Jun 27 2010 10:41 AM
. * * forecast SeaMule   Sun Jun 27 2010 09:54 AM
. * * Re: TS Alex danielwAdministrator   Sun Jun 27 2010 09:10 AM
. * * Re: TS Alex MikeCAdministrator   Sun Jun 27 2010 08:45 AM
. * * Re: TS Alex MikeCAdministrator   Sun Jun 27 2010 08:03 AM
. * * TS Alex danielwAdministrator   Sun Jun 27 2010 07:20 AM
. * * Re: TD1 Upgraded to TS Alex as of 5 am ET Storm Hunter   Sun Jun 27 2010 07:04 AM
. * * Re: TD1 Upgraded to TS Alex as of 5 am ET Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sat Jun 26 2010 10:01 PM
. * * Re: TD1 Upgraded to TS Alex as of 5 am ET MikeCAdministrator   Sat Jun 26 2010 09:45 PM
. * * Re: TD1 Upgraded to TS Alex as of 5 am ET Storm Hunter   Sat Jun 26 2010 07:04 PM
. * * Re: TD1 Upgraded to TS Alex as of 5 am ET Old Sailor   Sat Jun 26 2010 06:33 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Alex nears Landfall in Belize cieldumort   Sat Jun 26 2010 04:58 PM
. * * Re: TD1 Upgraded to TS Alex as of 5 am ET berrywr   Sat Jun 26 2010 04:44 PM
. * * Re: TD1 Upgraded to TS Alex as of 5 am ET berrywr   Sat Jun 26 2010 04:36 PM
. * * TS Alex danielwAdministrator   Sat Jun 26 2010 04:31 PM
. * * Re: TD1 Upgraded to TS Alex as of 5 am ET Storm Hunter   Sat Jun 26 2010 04:08 PM
. * * Re: TD1 Upgraded to TS Alex as of 5 am ET WeatherNut   Sat Jun 26 2010 03:39 PM
. * * Re: TD1 Upgraded to TS Alex as of 5 am ET danielwAdministrator   Sat Jun 26 2010 03:35 PM
. * * Re: TD1 Upgraded to TS Alex as of 5 am ET WeatherNut   Sat Jun 26 2010 03:34 PM
. * * Re: TD1 Upgraded to TS Alex as of 5 am ET WeatherNut   Sat Jun 26 2010 02:54 PM
. * * Re: TD1 Upgraded to TS Alex as of 5 am ET Storm Hunter   Sat Jun 26 2010 02:52 PM
. * * Re: TD1 Upgraded to TS Alex as of 5 am ET MikeCAdministrator   Sat Jun 26 2010 02:48 PM
. * * Re: TD1 Upgraded to TS Alex as of 5 am ET danielwAdministrator   Sat Jun 26 2010 02:42 PM
. * * Re: TD1 Upgraded to TS Alex as of 5 am ET typhoon_tip   Sat Jun 26 2010 02:40 PM
. * * Re: TD1 Upgraded to TS Alex as of 5 am ET Storm Hunter   Sat Jun 26 2010 02:34 PM
. * * Re: TD1 Upgraded to TS Alex as of 5 am ET MikeCAdministrator   Sat Jun 26 2010 01:55 PM
. * * Re: TD1 Upgraded to TS Alex as of 5 am ET WeatherNut   Sat Jun 26 2010 01:50 PM
. * * Re: TD1 Upgraded to TS Alex as of 5 am ET MikeCAdministrator   Sat Jun 26 2010 07:35 AM
. * * TD1 Upgraded to TS Alex as of 5 am ET berrywr   Sat Jun 26 2010 05:13 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression One forms in West Caribbean WeatherNut   Sat Jun 26 2010 01:32 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression One forms in West Caribbean LakeToho   Sat Jun 26 2010 01:16 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression One forms in West Caribbean Storm Hunter   Fri Jun 25 2010 10:40 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression One forms in West Caribbean Hugh   Fri Jun 25 2010 10:39 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression One forms in West Caribbean Storm Hunter   Fri Jun 25 2010 10:15 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression One forms in West Caribbean mwillis   Fri Jun 25 2010 10:12 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression One forms in West Caribbean danielwAdministrator   Fri Jun 25 2010 10:06 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression One forms in West Caribbean Hugh   Fri Jun 25 2010 09:24 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression One forms in West Caribbean JordanBell   Fri Jun 25 2010 09:17 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression One forms in West Caribbean Hugh   Fri Jun 25 2010 09:13 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression One forms in West Caribbean Storm Hunter   Fri Jun 25 2010 08:58 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression One forms in West Caribbean Hugh   Fri Jun 25 2010 08:49 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression One forms in West Caribbean ftlaudbob   Fri Jun 25 2010 08:39 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression One forms in West Caribbean Hugh   Fri Jun 25 2010 08:06 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression One forms in West Caribbean Storm Hunter   Fri Jun 25 2010 07:51 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression One forms in West Caribbean WeatherNut   Fri Jun 25 2010 07:48 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression One forms in West Caribbean Hugh   Fri Jun 25 2010 07:31 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression One forms in West Caribbean MikeCAdministrator   Fri Jun 25 2010 07:27 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression One forms in West Caribbean doug   Fri Jun 25 2010 06:58 PM

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