The 12z guidance: I don't believe the models are doing a very good job with Alex, despite seeing a reasonably well clustered vision by the various model types (sans the Euro), for a vestigial circulation to re-emerge over the eastern Cam. Bay on a NW trajectory. Looking at the observed deep layer steering field it would seem such a motion would be premature - we'll see. Also, it almost appears that what a few of these models, HWRF and GFDL for example, are doing is actually shearing off a piece of the llv vorticity and using that to redevelop, which does not seem too plausible given to the current singularly cohesive circulation structure. That aside, I am finding it intriguing where the models are getting this NW motion from, which if it is going to work out that way we would probably be seeing that beginning to materialize this afternoon. The deep layer steering field shows fairly impressive ridge curvature to the N of Alex, which counters that expectation.
I was just studying the high resolution visible loops, as well as IR, and the best observation I could make has Alex on due west motion ...almost ever so slightly south of W if imagination got in the way. It also appears to be wobbling some, though.
Alex has a very good circulation presentation that does not appeal as one that is to be dismantled before potentially tapping into the BOC fuel source. All other parameters actually support TC genesis, as others have noted. From my perspective, given the in tact structure and assuming this doesn't stall before getting what remains of a "core" nearer to the coast I see restrengthening a real possibility.
Also, seeing as the models are going S Texas to the upper TX Coast (per the CMC), it is obviously a good idea to keep an eye on this.
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