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MikeCAdministrator
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Posts: 4635
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche
      Mon Jun 28 2010 08:16 AM

Quote:

What is the probability of this storm getting further north, and when would we know if this could happen. I live in Houston, tx.



Roughly 7%, it gets much higher the further south you go, highest is in Mexico around San Fernando at about 43%. In short very doubtful you will have much to deal with in Alex as far as Landfall goes.
Current model trends are shifting toward the north, but have also continued to fall to the right of where the storm actually has gone.
If you were to base it solely on the models right now, Brownsville would be the middle of it, with plenty on either side. Trends on the storm overall would suggest further south, and of course the official hurricane forecast is still toward the south.



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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Alex Headed Toward Mexico MikeCAdministrator Mon Jun 28 2010 08:16 AM
. * * Re: Alex - Left Turn, now moving W to WNW? WeatherNut   Tue Jun 29 2010 10:21 PM
. * * Re: Alex - Left Turn, now moving W to WNW? MikeCAdministrator   Tue Jun 29 2010 10:04 PM
. * * Re: Alex - Left Turn, now moving W to WNW? MikeCAdministrator   Tue Jun 29 2010 09:58 PM
. * * Re: Alex - Left Turn, now moving W to WNW? WeatherNut   Tue Jun 29 2010 09:20 PM
. * * Re: Alex - Left Turn, now moving W to WNW? allan   Tue Jun 29 2010 08:47 PM
. * * Re: Alex - Left Turn, now moving W to WNW? allan   Tue Jun 29 2010 07:52 PM
. * * Re: Alex - Left Turn, now moving W to WNW? stormtiger   Tue Jun 29 2010 05:26 PM
. * * Re: Alex - Left Turn, now moving W to WNW? doug   Tue Jun 29 2010 05:09 PM
. * * Re: Alex - Left Turn, now moving W to WNW? mwillis   Tue Jun 29 2010 04:58 PM
. * * Alex - Left Turn, now moving W to WNW? berrywr   Tue Jun 29 2010 04:53 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex JoshuaK   Tue Jun 29 2010 03:29 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex WeatherNut   Tue Jun 29 2010 11:25 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex Ed DunhamAdministrator   Tue Jun 29 2010 11:00 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex doug   Tue Jun 29 2010 10:57 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex Trekman   Tue Jun 29 2010 09:34 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex mcgowanmc   Tue Jun 29 2010 09:07 AM
. * * Re: Alex will become a hurricane. berrywr   Tue Jun 29 2010 08:26 AM
. * * Re: Alex will become a hurricane. berrywr   Tue Jun 29 2010 08:22 AM
. * * Re: Alex will become a hurricane. MikeCAdministrator   Tue Jun 29 2010 08:13 AM
. * * Re: Alex will become a hurricane. MikeCAdministrator   Tue Jun 29 2010 07:10 AM
. * * Alex will become a hurricane. Raymond   Tue Jun 29 2010 03:11 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex Fairhopian   Tue Jun 29 2010 02:57 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex k___g   Tue Jun 29 2010 01:17 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex mwillis   Tue Jun 29 2010 12:43 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex MikeCAdministrator   Mon Jun 28 2010 11:24 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex Storm Hunter   Mon Jun 28 2010 10:45 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex kpthras7   Mon Jun 28 2010 10:40 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex WeatherNut   Mon Jun 28 2010 10:29 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex Storm Hunter   Mon Jun 28 2010 10:25 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex WeatherNut   Mon Jun 28 2010 10:25 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex Storm Hunter   Mon Jun 28 2010 10:20 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex WeatherNut   Mon Jun 28 2010 10:16 PM
. * * Re: this is a huge storm Storm Hunter   Mon Jun 28 2010 09:44 PM
. * * Re: this is a huge storm Rick99   Mon Jun 28 2010 09:44 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex Storm Hunter   Mon Jun 28 2010 08:58 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex Storm Hunter   Mon Jun 28 2010 08:46 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex Storm Hunter   Mon Jun 28 2010 08:34 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex MikeCAdministrator   Mon Jun 28 2010 08:25 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex Storm Hunter   Mon Jun 28 2010 08:20 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex Storm Hunter   Mon Jun 28 2010 08:11 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex MikeCAdministrator   Mon Jun 28 2010 08:05 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex hogrunr   Mon Jun 28 2010 06:21 PM
. * * Re: 500mb Upper Air Analysis - June 28 - 12Z scottsvb   Mon Jun 28 2010 04:05 PM
. * * 500mb Upper Air Analysis - June 28 - 12Z berrywr   Mon Jun 28 2010 03:46 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche hogrunr   Mon Jun 28 2010 03:43 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche scottsvb   Mon Jun 28 2010 03:38 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche hogrunr   Mon Jun 28 2010 03:29 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche berrywr   Mon Jun 28 2010 03:06 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche Ed in Va   Mon Jun 28 2010 02:14 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche CLWeather   Mon Jun 28 2010 01:46 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche MikeCAdministrator   Mon Jun 28 2010 11:58 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche MikeCAdministrator   Mon Jun 28 2010 11:15 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche WeatherNut   Mon Jun 28 2010 10:58 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche hogrunr   Mon Jun 28 2010 10:51 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche 5m0k3   Mon Jun 28 2010 10:23 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche MikeCAdministrator   Mon Jun 28 2010 09:05 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche danielwAdministrator   Mon Jun 28 2010 08:52 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche mcgowanmc   Mon Jun 28 2010 08:50 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche danielwAdministrator   Mon Jun 28 2010 08:45 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche jasonch   Mon Jun 28 2010 08:31 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche MikeCAdministrator   Mon Jun 28 2010 08:16 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche jasonch   Mon Jun 28 2010 08:10 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche MikeCAdministrator   Mon Jun 28 2010 07:02 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche kpthras7   Mon Jun 28 2010 12:19 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche danielwAdministrator   Mon Jun 28 2010 12:03 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche danielwAdministrator   Sun Jun 27 2010 11:34 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche Storm Hunter   Sun Jun 27 2010 11:13 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche MikeCAdministrator   Sun Jun 27 2010 11:01 PM

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