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#Beryl is now forecast to become a Category 4 hurricane before reaching the Windward islands, those in the Hurricane Warning area should rush preparation to completion today. Also 96L east of Beryl with a 70% chance to develop.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 305 (Idalia) , Major: 305 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 305 (Idalia) Major: 305 (Idalia)
Hur Beryl
ADV#7 5:00 am EDT
10.7N 53.1W
Wind: 100MPH
Pres: 981mb
Moving:
W at 21 mph
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danielwAdministrator
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Reged:
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche
      Mon Jun 28 2010 08:45 AM

NHC seems to be sticking to their models that Alex will stay to the left side of the cone.

I did see the following in the latest Discussion:

THE CURRENT
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS MORE TYPICAL OF SYSTEM NEARING HURRICANE
STRENGTH. GIVEN THAT THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUITE LOW AND
THE ATMOSPHERE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN VERY MOIST IN THE MID-LEVELS
...I SEE NO REASON WHY ALEX SHOULD NOT CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN...AND
POSSIBLY EVEN BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL. THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE VERY
RELIABLE LGEM MODEL...WHICH BRINGS ALEX UP TO 90 KT BY 72 HOURS.

I would probably start to look at the possibility of Hurricane Conditions along the whole Texas Coastline this week... by Friday. Based on the last 24 hours of models shifting slighty to the north every 6 hours. And Alex being forecast to make 90 knots or 100 mph. Wind field is probably going to be large due to the size of the storm and pressure gradients. Alex has a large satellite signature at this time and I don't see a lot of reason for the size to shrink.

Check the Windspeed probablilities at NHC.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ or at
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/NHC/PWSAT1

Note... they change every 6 hours. Houston's present cumulative 13% probability of Tropical Storm force winds, thru Midnight Friday night, could go up or down 6 hours from now.

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Alex Headed Toward Mexico MikeCAdministrator Mon Jun 28 2010 08:45 AM
. * * Re: Alex - Left Turn, now moving W to WNW? WeatherNut   Tue Jun 29 2010 10:21 PM
. * * Re: Alex - Left Turn, now moving W to WNW? MikeCAdministrator   Tue Jun 29 2010 10:04 PM
. * * Re: Alex - Left Turn, now moving W to WNW? MikeCAdministrator   Tue Jun 29 2010 09:58 PM
. * * Re: Alex - Left Turn, now moving W to WNW? WeatherNut   Tue Jun 29 2010 09:20 PM
. * * Re: Alex - Left Turn, now moving W to WNW? allan   Tue Jun 29 2010 08:47 PM
. * * Re: Alex - Left Turn, now moving W to WNW? allan   Tue Jun 29 2010 07:52 PM
. * * Re: Alex - Left Turn, now moving W to WNW? stormtiger   Tue Jun 29 2010 05:26 PM
. * * Re: Alex - Left Turn, now moving W to WNW? doug   Tue Jun 29 2010 05:09 PM
. * * Re: Alex - Left Turn, now moving W to WNW? mwillis   Tue Jun 29 2010 04:58 PM
. * * Alex - Left Turn, now moving W to WNW? berrywr   Tue Jun 29 2010 04:53 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex JoshuaK   Tue Jun 29 2010 03:29 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex WeatherNut   Tue Jun 29 2010 11:25 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex Ed DunhamAdministrator   Tue Jun 29 2010 11:00 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex doug   Tue Jun 29 2010 10:57 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex Trekman   Tue Jun 29 2010 09:34 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex mcgowanmc   Tue Jun 29 2010 09:07 AM
. * * Re: Alex will become a hurricane. berrywr   Tue Jun 29 2010 08:26 AM
. * * Re: Alex will become a hurricane. berrywr   Tue Jun 29 2010 08:22 AM
. * * Re: Alex will become a hurricane. MikeCAdministrator   Tue Jun 29 2010 08:13 AM
. * * Re: Alex will become a hurricane. MikeCAdministrator   Tue Jun 29 2010 07:10 AM
. * * Alex will become a hurricane. Raymond   Tue Jun 29 2010 03:11 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex Fairhopian   Tue Jun 29 2010 02:57 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex k___g   Tue Jun 29 2010 01:17 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex mwillis   Tue Jun 29 2010 12:43 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex MikeCAdministrator   Mon Jun 28 2010 11:24 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex Storm Hunter   Mon Jun 28 2010 10:45 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex kpthras7   Mon Jun 28 2010 10:40 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex WeatherNut   Mon Jun 28 2010 10:29 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex Storm Hunter   Mon Jun 28 2010 10:25 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex WeatherNut   Mon Jun 28 2010 10:25 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex Storm Hunter   Mon Jun 28 2010 10:20 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex WeatherNut   Mon Jun 28 2010 10:16 PM
. * * Re: this is a huge storm Storm Hunter   Mon Jun 28 2010 09:44 PM
. * * Re: this is a huge storm Rick99   Mon Jun 28 2010 09:44 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex Storm Hunter   Mon Jun 28 2010 08:58 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex Storm Hunter   Mon Jun 28 2010 08:46 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex Storm Hunter   Mon Jun 28 2010 08:34 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex MikeCAdministrator   Mon Jun 28 2010 08:25 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex Storm Hunter   Mon Jun 28 2010 08:20 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex Storm Hunter   Mon Jun 28 2010 08:11 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex MikeCAdministrator   Mon Jun 28 2010 08:05 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex hogrunr   Mon Jun 28 2010 06:21 PM
. * * Re: 500mb Upper Air Analysis - June 28 - 12Z scottsvb   Mon Jun 28 2010 04:05 PM
. * * 500mb Upper Air Analysis - June 28 - 12Z berrywr   Mon Jun 28 2010 03:46 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche hogrunr   Mon Jun 28 2010 03:43 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche scottsvb   Mon Jun 28 2010 03:38 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche hogrunr   Mon Jun 28 2010 03:29 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche berrywr   Mon Jun 28 2010 03:06 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche Ed in Va   Mon Jun 28 2010 02:14 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche CLWeather   Mon Jun 28 2010 01:46 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche MikeCAdministrator   Mon Jun 28 2010 11:58 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche MikeCAdministrator   Mon Jun 28 2010 11:15 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche WeatherNut   Mon Jun 28 2010 10:58 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche hogrunr   Mon Jun 28 2010 10:51 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche 5m0k3   Mon Jun 28 2010 10:23 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche MikeCAdministrator   Mon Jun 28 2010 09:05 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche danielwAdministrator   Mon Jun 28 2010 08:52 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche mcgowanmc   Mon Jun 28 2010 08:50 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche danielwAdministrator   Mon Jun 28 2010 08:45 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche jasonch   Mon Jun 28 2010 08:31 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche MikeCAdministrator   Mon Jun 28 2010 08:16 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche jasonch   Mon Jun 28 2010 08:10 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche MikeCAdministrator   Mon Jun 28 2010 07:02 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche kpthras7   Mon Jun 28 2010 12:19 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche danielwAdministrator   Mon Jun 28 2010 12:03 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche danielwAdministrator   Sun Jun 27 2010 11:34 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche Storm Hunter   Sun Jun 27 2010 11:13 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche MikeCAdministrator   Sun Jun 27 2010 11:01 PM

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