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Archives 2010s >> 2010 News Talkbacks

danielw
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Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)

Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche
Mon Jun 28 2010 12:45 PM

NHC seems to be sticking to their models that Alex will stay to the left side of the cone.

I did see the following in the latest Discussion:

THE CURRENT
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS MORE TYPICAL OF SYSTEM NEARING HURRICANE
STRENGTH. GIVEN THAT THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUITE LOW AND
THE ATMOSPHERE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN VERY MOIST IN THE MID-LEVELS
...I SEE NO REASON WHY ALEX SHOULD NOT CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN...AND
POSSIBLY EVEN BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL. THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE VERY
RELIABLE LGEM MODEL...WHICH BRINGS ALEX UP TO 90 KT BY 72 HOURS.

I would probably start to look at the possibility of Hurricane Conditions along the whole Texas Coastline this week... by Friday. Based on the last 24 hours of models shifting slighty to the north every 6 hours. And Alex being forecast to make 90 knots or 100 mph. Wind field is probably going to be large due to the size of the storm and pressure gradients. Alex has a large satellite signature at this time and I don't see a lot of reason for the size to shrink.

Check the Windspeed probablilities at NHC.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ or at
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/NHC/PWSAT1

Note... they change every 6 hours. Houston's present cumulative 13% probability of Tropical Storm force winds, thru Midnight Friday night, could go up or down 6 hours from now.

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Alex Headed Toward Mexico	MikeC	Mon Jun 28 2010 12:45 PM
Re: Alex - Left Turn, now moving W to WNW?	WeatherNut	Wed Jun 30 2010 02:21 AM
Re: Alex - Left Turn, now moving W to WNW?	MikeC	Wed Jun 30 2010 02:04 AM
Re: Alex - Left Turn, now moving W to WNW?	MikeC	Wed Jun 30 2010 01:58 AM
Re: Alex - Left Turn, now moving W to WNW?	WeatherNut	Wed Jun 30 2010 01:20 AM
Re: Alex - Left Turn, now moving W to WNW?	allan	Wed Jun 30 2010 12:47 AM
Re: Alex - Left Turn, now moving W to WNW?	allan	Tue Jun 29 2010 11:52 PM
Re: Alex - Left Turn, now moving W to WNW?	stormtiger	Tue Jun 29 2010 09:26 PM
Re: Alex - Left Turn, now moving W to WNW?	doug	Tue Jun 29 2010 09:09 PM
Re: Alex - Left Turn, now moving W to WNW?	mwillis	Tue Jun 29 2010 08:58 PM
Alex - Left Turn, now moving W to WNW?	berrywr	Tue Jun 29 2010 08:53 PM
Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex	JoshuaK	Tue Jun 29 2010 07:29 PM
Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex	WeatherNut	Tue Jun 29 2010 03:25 PM
Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex	Ed Dunham	Tue Jun 29 2010 03:00 PM
Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex	doug	Tue Jun 29 2010 02:57 PM
Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex	Trekman	Tue Jun 29 2010 01:34 PM
Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex	mcgowanmc	Tue Jun 29 2010 01:07 PM
Re: Alex will become a hurricane.	berrywr	Tue Jun 29 2010 12:26 PM
Re: Alex will become a hurricane.	berrywr	Tue Jun 29 2010 12:22 PM
Re: Alex will become a hurricane.	MikeC	Tue Jun 29 2010 12:13 PM
Re: Alex will become a hurricane.	MikeC	Tue Jun 29 2010 11:10 AM
Alex will become a hurricane.	Raymond	Tue Jun 29 2010 07:11 AM
Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex	Fairhopian	Tue Jun 29 2010 06:57 AM
Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex	k___g	Tue Jun 29 2010 05:17 AM
Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex	mwillis	Tue Jun 29 2010 04:43 AM
Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex	MikeC	Tue Jun 29 2010 03:24 AM
Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex	Storm Hunter	Tue Jun 29 2010 02:45 AM
Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex	kpthras7	Tue Jun 29 2010 02:40 AM
Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex	WeatherNut	Tue Jun 29 2010 02:29 AM
Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex	Storm Hunter	Tue Jun 29 2010 02:25 AM
Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex	WeatherNut	Tue Jun 29 2010 02:25 AM
Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex	Storm Hunter	Tue Jun 29 2010 02:20 AM
Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex	WeatherNut	Tue Jun 29 2010 02:16 AM
Re: this is a huge storm	Storm Hunter	Tue Jun 29 2010 01:44 AM
Re: this is a huge storm	Rick99	Tue Jun 29 2010 01:44 AM
Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex	Storm Hunter	Tue Jun 29 2010 12:58 AM
Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex	Storm Hunter	Tue Jun 29 2010 12:46 AM
Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex	Storm Hunter	Tue Jun 29 2010 12:34 AM
Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex	MikeC	Tue Jun 29 2010 12:25 AM
Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex	Storm Hunter	Tue Jun 29 2010 12:20 AM
Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex	Storm Hunter	Tue Jun 29 2010 12:11 AM
Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex	MikeC	Tue Jun 29 2010 12:05 AM
Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex	hogrunr	Mon Jun 28 2010 10:21 PM
Re: 500mb Upper Air Analysis - June 28 - 12Z	scottsvb	Mon Jun 28 2010 08:05 PM
500mb Upper Air Analysis - June 28 - 12Z	berrywr	Mon Jun 28 2010 07:46 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche	hogrunr	Mon Jun 28 2010 07:43 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche	scottsvb	Mon Jun 28 2010 07:38 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche	hogrunr	Mon Jun 28 2010 07:29 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche	berrywr	Mon Jun 28 2010 07:06 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche	Ed in Va	Mon Jun 28 2010 06:14 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche	CLWeather	Mon Jun 28 2010 05:46 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche	MikeC	Mon Jun 28 2010 03:58 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche	MikeC	Mon Jun 28 2010 03:15 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche	WeatherNut	Mon Jun 28 2010 02:58 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche	hogrunr	Mon Jun 28 2010 02:51 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche	5m0k3	Mon Jun 28 2010 02:23 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche	MikeC	Mon Jun 28 2010 01:05 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche	danielw	Mon Jun 28 2010 12:52 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche	mcgowanmc	Mon Jun 28 2010 12:50 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche	danielw	Mon Jun 28 2010 12:45 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche	jasonch	Mon Jun 28 2010 12:31 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche	MikeC	Mon Jun 28 2010 12:16 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche	jasonch	Mon Jun 28 2010 12:10 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche	MikeC	Mon Jun 28 2010 11:02 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche	kpthras7	Mon Jun 28 2010 04:19 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche	danielw	Mon Jun 28 2010 04:03 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche	danielw	Mon Jun 28 2010 03:34 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche	Storm Hunter	Mon Jun 28 2010 03:13 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche	MikeC	Mon Jun 28 2010 03:01 AM

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