Alex Headed Toward Mexico - FLHurricane.com

That's what I've been wondering.

I've followed the models/sat's and watched and watched since coming ashore
N of Belize that the NHC has been throwing Alex into Mexico.

With some saying it would not get into the BOC.

Meanwhile since emerging into the BOC it's XTRP(Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog .... XTRP is the extrapolated movement, or the track the storm would take if it didnt change direction or speed. ...)
has gone from W to NW to NNW (with nothing but outlier models
predicting this Sun PM.

As the Models continue, as Alex has moved another 250-300 miles to the North,
with outflow now to be seen in the NW quadrant, to throw Alex now almost due W...

CLIPER5( and LBAR the only outliers following the XTRP) is a statistical track model originally developed in 1972 and extended to provide forecasts out to 120 h (5 days) in 1998. As the name implies, the CLIPER5 model is based on climatology and persistence. It employs a multiple regression technique that estimates the relationships between several parameters of the active TC to a historic record of TC behavior to predict the track of the active TC. The inputs to the CLIPER5 include the current and past movement of the TC during the previous 12_ and 24_hour periods, the direction of its motion, its current latitude and longitude, date, and initial intensity. CLIPER5 is now used primarily as a benchmark for evaluating the forecast skill of other models and the official NHC forecast, rather than as a forecast aid.

Something has got to happen in the next 6 hours. Alex has got to stall, then turn
or get ripped apart by whatever is going to be throwing it into Mexico S of Texas.
IMHO
like the NHC track still has it.

The Curious Incident of the Hurricane Dynamical Models One thing that strikes me(Dr. Rob Carver substituting for jeff@ Wunderblog as odd about Alex is that neither the GFDL nor the HWRF have been intensifying the storm into a hurricane in the past few model runs. This is intriguing because Alex is already a strong tropical storm(70mph now). It will bear watching to see if GFDL/HWRF continue this pattern for future storms.

Alex is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph. A turn toward the northwest is expected later today... followed by a gradual turn toward the west-northwest on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph... with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours... and Alex is likely to become a hurricane later today.

So shoot me. I don't know, eh. ;}

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