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Archives 2010s >> 2010 News Talkbacks

allan
Weather Master

Reged:
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida

Re: Alex - Left Turn, now moving W to WNW?
Tue Jun 29 2010 07:52 PM

Been observing more on the steering layers for the storm. It seems like the stronger Alex gets, the more north he can pull. Just for an example, look at this map Steering Layers for 940 mlb. or lower . If Alex was a category 4 or 5 with pressure of 940 mlb. it would steer to just about south of Galveston. The map shows a much weaker ridge. However, the weaker Alex is, the more west it goes Steering Layers for 990-970 mlb. . NHC has Alex becoming a category 1 storm at landfall, which is reasonable because of the dry air that has been inhibiting it. However, I'm looking at a category 2 Hurricane at landfall, same thing happened with Dolly in 2008. Landfall either at or south of the Mexican border, which was my first forecast but after the models went north, and as the trough looked stronger, I veered it north, but I'm starting to see a WNW movement with Alex, of course recon will have the best information. My best guess is that Alex is a Category 1 storm with 75-80 mph by 11 p.m. since recon won't be at the center till after the 8 p.m. advisory which has no change in strength. If this doesn't belong here please let me know, it's been a long time since I used this site, grown more in my knowledge of weather over the years.

--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Alex Headed Toward Mexico	MikeC	Tue Jun 29 2010 07:52 PM
Re: Alex - Left Turn, now moving W to WNW?	WeatherNut	Tue Jun 29 2010 10:21 PM
Re: Alex - Left Turn, now moving W to WNW?	MikeC	Tue Jun 29 2010 10:04 PM
Re: Alex - Left Turn, now moving W to WNW?	MikeC	Tue Jun 29 2010 09:58 PM
Re: Alex - Left Turn, now moving W to WNW?	WeatherNut	Tue Jun 29 2010 09:20 PM
Re: Alex - Left Turn, now moving W to WNW?	allan	Tue Jun 29 2010 08:47 PM
Re: Alex - Left Turn, now moving W to WNW?	allan	Tue Jun 29 2010 07:52 PM
Re: Alex - Left Turn, now moving W to WNW?	stormtiger	Tue Jun 29 2010 05:26 PM
Re: Alex - Left Turn, now moving W to WNW?	doug	Tue Jun 29 2010 05:09 PM
Re: Alex - Left Turn, now moving W to WNW?	mwillis	Tue Jun 29 2010 04:58 PM
Alex - Left Turn, now moving W to WNW?	berrywr	Tue Jun 29 2010 04:53 PM
Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex	JoshuaK	Tue Jun 29 2010 03:29 PM
Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex	WeatherNut	Tue Jun 29 2010 11:25 AM
Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex	Ed Dunham	Tue Jun 29 2010 11:00 AM
Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex	doug	Tue Jun 29 2010 10:57 AM
Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex	Trekman	Tue Jun 29 2010 09:34 AM
Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex	mcgowanmc	Tue Jun 29 2010 09:07 AM
Re: Alex will become a hurricane.	berrywr	Tue Jun 29 2010 08:26 AM
Re: Alex will become a hurricane.	berrywr	Tue Jun 29 2010 08:22 AM
Re: Alex will become a hurricane.	MikeC	Tue Jun 29 2010 08:13 AM
Re: Alex will become a hurricane.	MikeC	Tue Jun 29 2010 07:10 AM
Alex will become a hurricane.	Raymond	Tue Jun 29 2010 03:11 AM
Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex	Fairhopian	Tue Jun 29 2010 02:57 AM
Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex	k___g	Tue Jun 29 2010 01:17 AM
Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex	mwillis	Tue Jun 29 2010 12:43 AM
Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex	MikeC	Mon Jun 28 2010 11:24 PM
Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex	Storm Hunter	Mon Jun 28 2010 10:45 PM
Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex	kpthras7	Mon Jun 28 2010 10:40 PM
Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex	WeatherNut	Mon Jun 28 2010 10:29 PM
Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex	Storm Hunter	Mon Jun 28 2010 10:25 PM
Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex	WeatherNut	Mon Jun 28 2010 10:25 PM
Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex	Storm Hunter	Mon Jun 28 2010 10:20 PM
Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex	WeatherNut	Mon Jun 28 2010 10:16 PM
Re: this is a huge storm	Storm Hunter	Mon Jun 28 2010 09:44 PM
Re: this is a huge storm	Rick99	Mon Jun 28 2010 09:44 PM
Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex	Storm Hunter	Mon Jun 28 2010 08:58 PM
Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex	Storm Hunter	Mon Jun 28 2010 08:46 PM
Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex	Storm Hunter	Mon Jun 28 2010 08:34 PM
Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex	MikeC	Mon Jun 28 2010 08:25 PM
Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex	Storm Hunter	Mon Jun 28 2010 08:20 PM
Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex	Storm Hunter	Mon Jun 28 2010 08:11 PM
Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex	MikeC	Mon Jun 28 2010 08:05 PM
Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex	hogrunr	Mon Jun 28 2010 06:21 PM
Re: 500mb Upper Air Analysis - June 28 - 12Z	scottsvb	Mon Jun 28 2010 04:05 PM
500mb Upper Air Analysis - June 28 - 12Z	berrywr	Mon Jun 28 2010 03:46 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche	hogrunr	Mon Jun 28 2010 03:43 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche	scottsvb	Mon Jun 28 2010 03:38 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche	hogrunr	Mon Jun 28 2010 03:29 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche	berrywr	Mon Jun 28 2010 03:06 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche	Ed in Va	Mon Jun 28 2010 02:14 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche	CLWeather	Mon Jun 28 2010 01:46 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche	MikeC	Mon Jun 28 2010 11:58 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche	MikeC	Mon Jun 28 2010 11:15 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche	WeatherNut	Mon Jun 28 2010 10:58 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche	hogrunr	Mon Jun 28 2010 10:51 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche	5m0k3	Mon Jun 28 2010 10:23 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche	MikeC	Mon Jun 28 2010 09:05 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche	danielw	Mon Jun 28 2010 08:52 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche	mcgowanmc	Mon Jun 28 2010 08:50 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche	danielw	Mon Jun 28 2010 08:45 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche	jasonch	Mon Jun 28 2010 08:31 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche	MikeC	Mon Jun 28 2010 08:16 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche	jasonch	Mon Jun 28 2010 08:10 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche	MikeC	Mon Jun 28 2010 07:02 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche	kpthras7	Mon Jun 28 2010 12:19 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche	danielw	Mon Jun 28 2010 12:03 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche	danielw	Sun Jun 27 2010 11:34 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche	Storm Hunter	Sun Jun 27 2010 11:13 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche	MikeC	Sun Jun 27 2010 11:01 PM

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