cieldumort
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Loc: Austin, Tx
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Re: Hurricane Alex Continues to Strengthen
Wed Jun 30 2010 10:51 AM
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Intensity:
If it wasn't for the fact that Alex is a tremendously large hurricane, its radius of winds would be much more compact, as would the speeds, and thus their intensity. But in Alex, as like Ike for most of its duration in the GOM, the winds are spread way out - with tropical storm force winds extending out to roughly 200 miles from the center.
The minimum pressure at last pass in Alex would often support a high-end Cat 2/low-end Cat 3 cyclone ,and it is still possible that Alex wraps up a bit tighter prior to landfall. A landfall as a solid Cat 2 is possible, or potentially even Cat 3 is slightly possible, mostly depending on how much more time Alex has over water.
Track:
As of 13:45 UTC, Alex has been showing some signs of edging to the right again, rather than staying basically due west as had been the case since last night. Should this become a trend and then continue for a little while longer, Alex will be a little off track, but not necessarily out of the cone. However, this needs to be watched, as even a small but lasting shift to the right could imply significantly more wind impacts for many densely populated sections of south Texas.
It is important to remember that Alex is now - and generally has been - a much deeper tropical cyclone than most models runs have been accounting for. Deeper, better-formed tropical cyclones are subject to a different set of steering currents than weaker TCs, and for the better part of the past few days, these steering currents have supported a potential track that would be farther up the coastline for a deeper system, which Alex actually is.
Also, historically, TCs coming ashore along the coastline from roughly northern Mexico to the upper Texas coast are susceptible to regional influences that sometimes tend to tug and pull them northward the closer they are to actually coming ashore.
Impacts:
Flooding. The greatest impacts from Alex are all going to be about the rain and potential for serious flash flooding - an extraordinarily large and very wet hurricane - the hurricane force winds are restricted to a relatively small region around the very center.
Waterspouts and tornadoes are probable within the dirty part of the hurricane (right hand side, primarily in the right front quadrant).
Wind damage - There will be some to be sure. Tropical storm force winds, primarily in gusts, extend out to 200 miles from the center. Strong tropical storm force winds, even just in gusts, can take down trees that are rooted in saturated ground. South and east Texas have already had several days of widespread rain, some of it very substantial.
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