cieldumort
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Loc: Austin, Tx
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Re: Hurricane Alex Continues to Strengthen
Wed Jun 30 2010 09:28 PM
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A couple of observations:
As mentioned in the 4PM discussion, the high is building in and Alex is now clearly starting to respond, with an apparent more decisive turn back to the west, and even a wobble to the wsw. A landfall in northeastern Mexico is likely tonight, but only a stair-step or two back to the nw would bring hurricane-force winds into deep south Texas.
Tornadoes have been numerous, and moving at upwards of 50 or so mph, often too fast to spot before they are brushing right on through. Tornado warnings should be heeded with immediate urgency, as there is little or no visual lead time with tornadoes tracking this fast, often also obscured by rain.
Heavy rain continues to pound the eastern half of Texas, with frequent flooding underway, with rainfall rates of up to several inches per hour, sometimes ongoing for multiple hours over the same general locations.
Tropical storm force winds extend out very far. For example, several locations in and around San Antonio, far removed from the center of circulation, are now picking up sustained winds out of the E to NE in excess of 30mph, gusting over 40.
The core of Alex is improving dramatically heading into landfall, and it looks entirely likely that Alex will reach Cat 2 prior to landfall. Judging by the Dvorak technique, the hurricane has the appearance of an even stronger cyclone, already (with Dvorak intensity estimates already easily into the Cat 3 range). If Alex were to have (or for some reason we do not yet foresee, -does get-) more time over water, these estimates would almost certainly verify at the surface.
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