The models in general did poorly on Alex until late on the 25th, when a few started finally pointing the general direction where it went, even though plenty were split at the time. For a while the models were so consistently wrong to the north, I was really starting to think it may not ever get in the Bay of Campeche, but enough of a weakness in the ridge made it go northward a bit, enough to get quite a few people concerned it may head even further north.
Water vapor imagery kinda hampered that, and suggested a more westerly turn, which eventually did happen. The Hurricane center nailed the hurricane warning area pretty good, considering how large the storm was. It'll stay fairly strong until the center of the system runs against the mountains in Mexico, at which point it'll probably dissipate quickly.
The ongoing rainfall problem will probably be the largest story from Alex.
After Alex It'll probably be quiet for a bit (not long enough however), the most likely areas for July development are the West Caribbean, and Gulf, as well as west Atlantic start creeping in, toward later July you can start to consider African waves a bit more. The place to watch into next week is the Gulf, however.
0 registered and 120 anonymous users are browsing this forum.
Moderator:
Forum Permissions
You cannot start new topics
You cannot reply to topics
HTML is disabled
UBBCode is enabled
Rating:
Thread views: 27163
Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources.
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well.
Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center
Previous
Index
Next
Flat
Re: strength
Edit
Reply
Quote
