Tropical Depression Two Forms in Gulf of Mexico

NHC has upped the odds of 96L developing to 80% as of the 8 PM EDT update.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED JUL 7 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 290 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE
TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED
NEAR THE CENTER. TWO NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT ARE CURRENTLY
CONDUCTING A RESEARCH MISSION IN AND AROUND THE DISTURBANCE...AND
INFORMATION RECEIVED SO FAR SUGGESTS THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY
BE FORMING. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT AND IF ADDITIONAL ORGANIZATION CONTINUES...THEN
FORECAST ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED LATER TONIGHT OR THURSDAY
MORNING...WHICH WOULD REQUIRE THAT TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR
WARNINGS BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL REGIONS OF CENTRAL
AND LOWER TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
THIS DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY
WINDS TO PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND SOUTHERN TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/CANGIALOSI

From the Tropical Weather Discussion...
...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
24N94W AND EXTENDS A SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE LOW TO THE TEXAS
COAST NEAR FREEPORT...OR 29N95W. THIS EVENING THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE WITH SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION LOCATED FROM 20N-27N BETWEEN 91W-97W. MAXIMUM
DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY HAVE ALSO GENERATED SCATTERED
STRONG CONVECTION FARTHER SE AWAY FROM THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER OVER THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 17N-22N BETWEEN
88W-92W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ELSEWHERE OVER
THE WESTERN GULF W OF 88W AND STRETCH INLAND OVER LOUISIANA AND
EASTERN TEXAS. WITH THE LOW FORECAST TO TRACK NW OVER THE NEXT
24-36 HOURS...UPPER LEVEL WIND SHEAR VALUES REMAIN LOW AND UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE REMAINS HIGH OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN GULF...
PROVIDING THE SYSTEM WITH A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT.

NOAA Recon plane is currently flying a research mission in the area. Appear to have a broad circulation possibly centered near 23.5N/ 93.5W. Based on data from NOAA aircraft.

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