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Tropical Storm Watch issued for the Lower and Middle Florida Keys from Key West to W of Channel 5 Bridge, and for the Dry Tortugas #RAFAEL #FLWX
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 25 (Milton) , Major: 25 (Milton) Florida - Any: 25 (Milton) Major: 25 (Milton)
Rem Patty
ADV#10 11:00 am EDT
38.5N 16.2W
Wind: 35MPH
Pres: 999mb
Moving:
Ene at 17 mph
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TS Rafael
ADV#5 3:00 pm EDT
15.5N 76.7W
Wind: 45MPH
Pres: 997mb
Moving:
N at 9 mph
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged:
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
Re: Wave Looking Weaker This Morning
      Wed Jul 21 2010 08:57 AM

I'm looking at the visible loop, and 20N 70W looks pretty close to me, but your positioning is plausible too, Mike. Overall, it looks a bit like somethng took a knife to the whole system overnight. NHC says it's still code red, but down to 60%, and I think that's very generous - but then again, I thought 70% last night was too low. Models haven't shifted southward to correspond to a shallower system, though, which is curious. In fact, models (at 2am, I haven't seen the 8am run yet) are in very disturbing agreement, that ultimate landfall will be in the Florida panhandle, near Ft. Walton Beach. That there is so much agreement this far out is alarming.

Edit: Just went to Skeetobyte, which has the 12z model runs. They all point to the LA/TX border.


--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


Edited by Hugh (Wed Jul 21 2010 08:58 AM)

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Watching Two Systems MikeCAdministrator Wed Jul 21 2010 08:57 AM
. * * Re: July 22-00Z Model Package - Invest 97L MichaelA   Thu Jul 22 2010 10:00 AM
. * * Re: July 22-00Z Model Package - Invest 97L MichaelA   Thu Jul 22 2010 06:33 AM
. * * Re: July 22-00Z Model Package - Invest 98L berrywr   Thu Jul 22 2010 01:17 AM
. * * July 22-00Z Model Package - Invest 97L berrywr   Thu Jul 22 2010 01:11 AM
. * * Re: Watching Two Systems WesnWylie   Wed Jul 21 2010 11:57 PM
. * * Re: Watching Two Systems Hugh   Wed Jul 21 2010 09:06 PM
. * * Re: Watching Two Systems WesnWylie   Wed Jul 21 2010 08:47 PM
. * * Re: Watching Two Systems k___g   Wed Jul 21 2010 07:48 PM
. * * Re: Watching Two Systems Hugh   Wed Jul 21 2010 07:45 PM
. * * Re: Watching Two Systems allan   Wed Jul 21 2010 07:37 PM
. * * Re: Watching Two Systems Hugh   Wed Jul 21 2010 07:20 PM
. * * Re: Watching Two Systems WesnWylie   Wed Jul 21 2010 07:13 PM
. * * Re: Watching Two Systems berrywr   Wed Jul 21 2010 06:56 PM
. * * Re: Wave Looking Weaker This Morning berrywr   Wed Jul 21 2010 06:38 PM
. * * Re: Wave Looking Weaker This Morning berrywr   Wed Jul 21 2010 06:32 PM
. * * Re: Wave Looking Weaker This Morning MikeCAdministrator   Wed Jul 21 2010 06:22 PM
. * * Re: Wave Looking Weaker This Morning MikeCAdministrator   Wed Jul 21 2010 06:10 PM
. * * Re: Wave Looking Weaker This Morning doug   Wed Jul 21 2010 04:30 PM
. * * Re: Wave Looking Weaker This Morning Evan Johnson   Wed Jul 21 2010 03:07 PM
. * * Re: Wave Looking Weaker This Morning B_from_NC   Wed Jul 21 2010 02:55 PM
. * * Re: Wave Looking Weaker This Morning MichaelA   Wed Jul 21 2010 02:44 PM
. * * Re: Wave Looking Weaker This Morning Doombot!   Wed Jul 21 2010 02:40 PM
. * * Re: 97L Evan Johnson   Wed Jul 21 2010 02:38 PM
. * * Re: 97L Storm Hunter   Wed Jul 21 2010 02:27 PM
. * * Re: 97L MichaelA   Wed Jul 21 2010 01:59 PM
. * * Re: 97L Hugh   Wed Jul 21 2010 01:52 PM
. * * Re: 97L danielwAdministrator   Wed Jul 21 2010 01:44 PM
. * * Re: 97L Hugh   Wed Jul 21 2010 12:56 PM
. * * Re: 97L MikeCAdministrator   Wed Jul 21 2010 12:24 PM
. * * Re: Wave Looking Weaker This Morning weathernet   Wed Jul 21 2010 12:23 PM
. * * Re: Wave Looking Weaker This Morning Hugh   Wed Jul 21 2010 11:58 AM
. * * Re: Wave Looking Weaker This Morning rgd   Wed Jul 21 2010 10:51 AM
. * * Re: Wave Looking Weaker This Morning Hugh   Wed Jul 21 2010 10:08 AM
. * * Re: Wave Looking Weaker This Morning WesnWylie   Wed Jul 21 2010 09:58 AM
. * * Re: Wave Looking Weaker This Morning Hugh   Wed Jul 21 2010 08:57 AM
. * * Re: Wave Looking Weaker This Morning MikeCAdministrator   Wed Jul 21 2010 08:37 AM
. * * Re: Wave Looking Weaker This Morning berrywr   Wed Jul 21 2010 08:04 AM
. * * Re: 97L Doombot!   Tue Jul 20 2010 11:38 PM
. * * Re: 97L danielwAdministrator   Tue Jul 20 2010 11:32 PM
. * * Re: 97L MichaelA   Tue Jul 20 2010 10:46 PM
. * * Re: 97L Hugh   Tue Jul 20 2010 10:28 PM
. * * Re: 97L WeatherNut   Tue Jul 20 2010 09:46 PM
. * * Re: 97L MikeCAdministrator   Tue Jul 20 2010 08:41 PM
. * * Re: 97L Jasonch   Tue Jul 20 2010 08:26 PM
. * * Re: 97L MikeCAdministrator   Tue Jul 20 2010 07:42 PM
. * * Re: 97L WesnWylie   Tue Jul 20 2010 03:11 PM
. * * Re: 97L danielwAdministrator   Tue Jul 20 2010 02:45 PM
. * * Re: 97L MichaelA   Tue Jul 20 2010 02:06 PM
. * * Re: 97L WesnWylie   Tue Jul 20 2010 01:46 PM
. * * Re: Wave nearing the Yucatan Penninsula Lamar-Plant City   Tue Jul 20 2010 01:44 PM
. * * Re: Wave nearing the Yucatan Penninsula LoisCane   Tue Jul 20 2010 12:30 PM
. * * Wave nearing the Yucatan Penninsula WesnWylie   Tue Jul 20 2010 12:11 PM
. * * Re: 97L danielwAdministrator   Tue Jul 20 2010 10:41 AM
. * * Re: 97L MichaelA   Tue Jul 20 2010 10:11 AM
. * * Re: 97L MichaelA   Tue Jul 20 2010 10:06 AM
. * * Re: Wave Northeast of Caribbean Worth Watching this Week WesnWylie   Tue Jul 20 2010 09:46 AM
. * * Re: 97L Ed in Va   Tue Jul 20 2010 08:18 AM
. * * Re: 97L JoshuaK   Tue Jul 20 2010 03:42 AM
. * * Re: 97L Lamar-Plant City   Mon Jul 19 2010 11:48 PM
. * * Re: 97L Ed DunhamAdministrator   Mon Jul 19 2010 06:48 PM
. * * 97L Doombot!   Mon Jul 19 2010 04:23 PM
. * * Re: Wave Northeast of Caribbean Worth Watching this Week WesnWylie   Mon Jul 19 2010 04:05 PM
. * * Re: Areas being Watched JoshuaK   Mon Jul 19 2010 04:04 PM
. * * Re: Areas being Watched danielwAdministrator   Mon Jul 19 2010 12:22 PM
. * * Re: Areas being Watched MikeCAdministrator   Mon Jul 19 2010 10:47 AM
. * * Re: Areas being Watched danielwAdministrator   Sat Jul 17 2010 03:41 PM
. * * Re: Areas being Watched Jasonch   Sat Jul 17 2010 01:56 PM
. * * Re: Trough in the Gulf of Mexico danielwAdministrator   Fri Jul 16 2010 08:06 PM
. * * Trough in the Gulf of Mexico WesnWylie   Fri Jul 16 2010 02:08 PM
. * * Re: Area in GOM off W FL JoshuaK   Fri Jul 16 2010 12:23 PM
. * * Re: Area in GOM off W FL doug   Fri Jul 16 2010 08:34 AM
. * * Re: Area in GOM off W FL WesnWylie   Thu Jul 15 2010 06:07 PM
. * * Area in GOM off W FL berrywr   Thu Jul 15 2010 05:14 PM

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