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Invest 97L has dropped to 30% chance of development over the next 5 days. Watching as it rapidly moves west over the Atlantic.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 330 (Nicholas) , Major: 346 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1400 (Michael) Major: 1400 (Michael)
 


Archives 2010s >> 2010 News Talkbacks

danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: 97L
      Wed Jul 21 2010 01:44 PM

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
106 PM EDT WED JUL 21 2010

VALID JUL 21/1200 UTC THRU JUL 25/0000 UTC
excerpt~danielw

...TROPICAL WAVE CROSSING CUBA AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS...

THE NAM...UKMET...AND 00Z ECMWF ALL HANDLE THIS SYSTEM COMPARABLY.
THE GFS IS SLOWER...EXTENDING THE INVERTED TROUGH FARTHER NORTH.
THE MIDDAY MEDIUM RANGE COORDINATION WITH TPC RESULTED IN A
FORECAST OF A SURFACE LOW CROSSING THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO DAY 3.


?? Northwest corner on Day 3. Should that be NE Corner??~danielw

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
837 AM EDT WED JUL 21 2010

VALID 12Z SUN JUL 25 2010 - 12Z WED JUL 28 2010
excerpt

THE PRESSURES STARTED WITH A BLEND OF THE 00Z CANADIAN/06Z GFS
PARALLEL...BEFORE SWITCHING TO A 06Z GFS PARALLEL/00Z ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEAN COMPROMISE AFTER MONDAY MORNING WHICH MAINTAINS
REASONABLE CONTINUITY. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE TO
ENHANCE DEFINITION... AND TO YIELD A COMPROMISE FCST BETWEEN
FARTHER NORTHEASTWARD CONTINUITY VERSUS THE MAJORITY OF LATEST
ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC GLOBAL GUIDANCE WITH THE TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO EARLY IN
THE PERIOD. A PERSISTENTLY STRONG SOUTHEASTERN RIDGE ALOFT ALONG
WITH VERIFICATION OF RECENT FEATURES FORECAST OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO DO NOT APPEAR TO SUPPORT THE RECURVATURE SCENARIO INTO THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF COAST FAVORED BY POINTS MENTIONED ON THE 16Z
NHC/MEDIUM RANGE COORDINATION CALL YESTERDAY...HENCE THE SOUTHWEST
ADJUSTMENT. A PERSISTENT LACK OF ECMWF ENSEMBLE SUPPORT FOR THIS
SYSTEM CALLS INTO QUESTION HOW STRONG OF A FEATURE WILL ACTUALLY
MATERIALIZE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM THIS DISTURBANCE.

Post Extras Print Post   Remind Me!     Notify Moderator


Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Watching Two Systems MikeCAdministrator Wed Jul 21 2010 01:44 PM
. * * Re: July 22-00Z Model Package - Invest 97L MichaelA   Thu Jul 22 2010 10:00 AM
. * * Re: July 22-00Z Model Package - Invest 97L MichaelA   Thu Jul 22 2010 06:33 AM
. * * Re: July 22-00Z Model Package - Invest 98L berrywr   Thu Jul 22 2010 01:17 AM
. * * July 22-00Z Model Package - Invest 97L berrywr   Thu Jul 22 2010 01:11 AM
. * * Re: Watching Two Systems WesnWylie   Wed Jul 21 2010 11:57 PM
. * * Re: Watching Two Systems Hugh   Wed Jul 21 2010 09:06 PM
. * * Re: Watching Two Systems WesnWylie   Wed Jul 21 2010 08:47 PM
. * * Re: Watching Two Systems k___g   Wed Jul 21 2010 07:48 PM
. * * Re: Watching Two Systems Hugh   Wed Jul 21 2010 07:45 PM
. * * Re: Watching Two Systems allan   Wed Jul 21 2010 07:37 PM
. * * Re: Watching Two Systems Hugh   Wed Jul 21 2010 07:20 PM
. * * Re: Watching Two Systems WesnWylie   Wed Jul 21 2010 07:13 PM
. * * Re: Watching Two Systems berrywr   Wed Jul 21 2010 06:56 PM
. * * Re: Wave Looking Weaker This Morning berrywr   Wed Jul 21 2010 06:38 PM
. * * Re: Wave Looking Weaker This Morning berrywr   Wed Jul 21 2010 06:32 PM
. * * Re: Wave Looking Weaker This Morning MikeCAdministrator   Wed Jul 21 2010 06:22 PM
. * * Re: Wave Looking Weaker This Morning MikeCAdministrator   Wed Jul 21 2010 06:10 PM
. * * Re: Wave Looking Weaker This Morning doug   Wed Jul 21 2010 04:30 PM
. * * Re: Wave Looking Weaker This Morning Evan Johnson   Wed Jul 21 2010 03:07 PM
. * * Re: Wave Looking Weaker This Morning B_from_NC   Wed Jul 21 2010 02:55 PM
. * * Re: Wave Looking Weaker This Morning MichaelA   Wed Jul 21 2010 02:44 PM
. * * Re: Wave Looking Weaker This Morning Doombot!   Wed Jul 21 2010 02:40 PM
. * * Re: 97L Evan Johnson   Wed Jul 21 2010 02:38 PM
. * * Re: 97L Storm Hunter   Wed Jul 21 2010 02:27 PM
. * * Re: 97L MichaelA   Wed Jul 21 2010 01:59 PM
. * * Re: 97L Hugh   Wed Jul 21 2010 01:52 PM
. * * Re: 97L danielwAdministrator   Wed Jul 21 2010 01:44 PM
. * * Re: 97L Hugh   Wed Jul 21 2010 12:56 PM
. * * Re: 97L MikeCAdministrator   Wed Jul 21 2010 12:24 PM
. * * Re: Wave Looking Weaker This Morning weathernet   Wed Jul 21 2010 12:23 PM
. * * Re: Wave Looking Weaker This Morning Hugh   Wed Jul 21 2010 11:58 AM
. * * Re: Wave Looking Weaker This Morning rgd   Wed Jul 21 2010 10:51 AM
. * * Re: Wave Looking Weaker This Morning Hugh   Wed Jul 21 2010 10:08 AM
. * * Re: Wave Looking Weaker This Morning WesnWylie   Wed Jul 21 2010 09:58 AM
. * * Re: Wave Looking Weaker This Morning Hugh   Wed Jul 21 2010 08:57 AM
. * * Re: Wave Looking Weaker This Morning MikeCAdministrator   Wed Jul 21 2010 08:37 AM
. * * Re: Wave Looking Weaker This Morning berrywr   Wed Jul 21 2010 08:04 AM
. * * Re: 97L Doombot!   Tue Jul 20 2010 11:38 PM
. * * Re: 97L danielwAdministrator   Tue Jul 20 2010 11:32 PM
. * * Re: 97L MichaelA   Tue Jul 20 2010 10:46 PM
. * * Re: 97L Hugh   Tue Jul 20 2010 10:28 PM
. * * Re: 97L WeatherNut   Tue Jul 20 2010 09:46 PM
. * * Re: 97L MikeCAdministrator   Tue Jul 20 2010 08:41 PM
. * * Re: 97L Jasonch   Tue Jul 20 2010 08:26 PM
. * * Re: 97L MikeCAdministrator   Tue Jul 20 2010 07:42 PM
. * * Re: 97L WesnWylie   Tue Jul 20 2010 03:11 PM
. * * Re: 97L danielwAdministrator   Tue Jul 20 2010 02:45 PM
. * * Re: 97L MichaelA   Tue Jul 20 2010 02:06 PM
. * * Re: 97L WesnWylie   Tue Jul 20 2010 01:46 PM
. * * Re: Wave nearing the Yucatan Penninsula Lamar-Plant City   Tue Jul 20 2010 01:44 PM
. * * Re: Wave nearing the Yucatan Penninsula LoisCane   Tue Jul 20 2010 12:30 PM
. * * Wave nearing the Yucatan Penninsula WesnWylie   Tue Jul 20 2010 12:11 PM
. * * Re: 97L danielwAdministrator   Tue Jul 20 2010 10:41 AM
. * * Re: 97L MichaelA   Tue Jul 20 2010 10:11 AM
. * * Re: 97L MichaelA   Tue Jul 20 2010 10:06 AM
. * * Re: Wave Northeast of Caribbean Worth Watching this Week WesnWylie   Tue Jul 20 2010 09:46 AM
. * * Re: 97L Ed in Va   Tue Jul 20 2010 08:18 AM
. * * Re: 97L JoshuaK   Tue Jul 20 2010 03:42 AM
. * * Re: 97L Lamar-Plant City   Mon Jul 19 2010 11:48 PM
. * * Re: 97L Ed DunhamAdministrator   Mon Jul 19 2010 06:48 PM
. * * 97L Doombot!   Mon Jul 19 2010 04:23 PM
. * * Re: Wave Northeast of Caribbean Worth Watching this Week WesnWylie   Mon Jul 19 2010 04:05 PM
. * * Re: Areas being Watched JoshuaK   Mon Jul 19 2010 04:04 PM
. * * Re: Areas being Watched danielwAdministrator   Mon Jul 19 2010 12:22 PM
. * * Re: Areas being Watched MikeCAdministrator   Mon Jul 19 2010 10:47 AM
. * * Re: Areas being Watched danielwAdministrator   Sat Jul 17 2010 03:41 PM
. * * Re: Areas being Watched Jasonch   Sat Jul 17 2010 01:56 PM
. * * Re: Trough in the Gulf of Mexico danielwAdministrator   Fri Jul 16 2010 08:06 PM
. * * Trough in the Gulf of Mexico WesnWylie   Fri Jul 16 2010 02:08 PM
. * * Re: Area in GOM off W FL JoshuaK   Fri Jul 16 2010 12:23 PM
. * * Re: Area in GOM off W FL doug   Fri Jul 16 2010 08:34 AM
. * * Re: Area in GOM off W FL WesnWylie   Thu Jul 15 2010 06:07 PM
. * * Area in GOM off W FL berrywr   Thu Jul 15 2010 05:14 PM

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