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Invest 95L in the Tropical Atlantic now has a 90% chance to develop over the next 7 days, and a 70% chance to do so in the next 48 hours. Recon scheduled for Sunday morning.a

Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 302 (Idalia) , Major: 302 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 302 (Idalia) Major: 302 (Idalia)

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Archives 2010s >> 2010 News Talkbacks

danielw
Moderator

Reged:
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)

Re: 97L
Wed Jul 21 2010 01:44 PM

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
106 PM EDT WED JUL 21 2010

VALID JUL 21/1200 UTC THRU JUL 25/0000 UTC
excerpt~danielw

...TROPICAL WAVE CROSSING CUBA AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS...

THE NAM...UKMET...AND 00Z ECMWF ALL HANDLE THIS SYSTEM COMPARABLY.
THE GFS IS SLOWER...EXTENDING THE INVERTED TROUGH FARTHER NORTH.
THE MIDDAY MEDIUM RANGE COORDINATION WITH TPC RESULTED IN A
FORECAST OF A SURFACE LOW CROSSING THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO DAY 3.

?? Northwest corner on Day 3. Should that be NE Corner??~danielw

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
837 AM EDT WED JUL 21 2010

VALID 12Z SUN JUL 25 2010 - 12Z WED JUL 28 2010
excerpt

THE PRESSURES STARTED WITH A BLEND OF THE 00Z CANADIAN/06Z GFS
PARALLEL...BEFORE SWITCHING TO A 06Z GFS PARALLEL/00Z ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEAN COMPROMISE AFTER MONDAY MORNING WHICH MAINTAINS
REASONABLE CONTINUITY. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE TO
ENHANCE DEFINITION... AND TO YIELD A COMPROMISE FCST BETWEEN
FARTHER NORTHEASTWARD CONTINUITY VERSUS THE MAJORITY OF LATEST
ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC GLOBAL GUIDANCE WITH THE TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO EARLY IN
THE PERIOD. A PERSISTENTLY STRONG SOUTHEASTERN RIDGE ALOFT ALONG
WITH VERIFICATION OF RECENT FEATURES FORECAST OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO DO NOT APPEAR TO SUPPORT THE RECURVATURE SCENARIO INTO THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF COAST FAVORED BY POINTS MENTIONED ON THE 16Z
NHC/MEDIUM RANGE COORDINATION CALL YESTERDAY...HENCE THE SOUTHWEST
ADJUSTMENT. A PERSISTENT LACK OF ECMWF ENSEMBLE SUPPORT FOR THIS
SYSTEM CALLS INTO QUESTION HOW STRONG OF A FEATURE WILL ACTUALLY
MATERIALIZE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM THIS DISTURBANCE.

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Watching Two Systems	MikeC	Wed Jul 21 2010 01:44 PM
Re: July 22-00Z Model Package - Invest 97L	MichaelA	Thu Jul 22 2010 10:00 AM
Re: July 22-00Z Model Package - Invest 97L	MichaelA	Thu Jul 22 2010 06:33 AM
Re: July 22-00Z Model Package - Invest 98L	berrywr	Thu Jul 22 2010 01:17 AM
July 22-00Z Model Package - Invest 97L	berrywr	Thu Jul 22 2010 01:11 AM
Re: Watching Two Systems	WesnWylie	Wed Jul 21 2010 11:57 PM
Re: Watching Two Systems	Hugh	Wed Jul 21 2010 09:06 PM
Re: Watching Two Systems	WesnWylie	Wed Jul 21 2010 08:47 PM
Re: Watching Two Systems	k___g	Wed Jul 21 2010 07:48 PM
Re: Watching Two Systems	Hugh	Wed Jul 21 2010 07:45 PM
Re: Watching Two Systems	allan	Wed Jul 21 2010 07:37 PM
Re: Watching Two Systems	Hugh	Wed Jul 21 2010 07:20 PM
Re: Watching Two Systems	WesnWylie	Wed Jul 21 2010 07:13 PM
Re: Watching Two Systems	berrywr	Wed Jul 21 2010 06:56 PM
Re: Wave Looking Weaker This Morning	berrywr	Wed Jul 21 2010 06:38 PM
Re: Wave Looking Weaker This Morning	berrywr	Wed Jul 21 2010 06:32 PM
Re: Wave Looking Weaker This Morning	MikeC	Wed Jul 21 2010 06:22 PM
Re: Wave Looking Weaker This Morning	MikeC	Wed Jul 21 2010 06:10 PM
Re: Wave Looking Weaker This Morning	doug	Wed Jul 21 2010 04:30 PM
Re: Wave Looking Weaker This Morning	Evan Johnson	Wed Jul 21 2010 03:07 PM
Re: Wave Looking Weaker This Morning	B_from_NC	Wed Jul 21 2010 02:55 PM
Re: Wave Looking Weaker This Morning	MichaelA	Wed Jul 21 2010 02:44 PM
Re: Wave Looking Weaker This Morning	Doombot!	Wed Jul 21 2010 02:40 PM
Re: 97L	Evan Johnson	Wed Jul 21 2010 02:38 PM
Re: 97L	Storm Hunter	Wed Jul 21 2010 02:27 PM
Re: 97L	MichaelA	Wed Jul 21 2010 01:59 PM
Re: 97L	Hugh	Wed Jul 21 2010 01:52 PM
Re: 97L	danielw	Wed Jul 21 2010 01:44 PM
Re: 97L	Hugh	Wed Jul 21 2010 12:56 PM
Re: 97L	MikeC	Wed Jul 21 2010 12:24 PM
Re: Wave Looking Weaker This Morning	weathernet	Wed Jul 21 2010 12:23 PM
Re: Wave Looking Weaker This Morning	Hugh	Wed Jul 21 2010 11:58 AM
Re: Wave Looking Weaker This Morning	rgd	Wed Jul 21 2010 10:51 AM
Re: Wave Looking Weaker This Morning	Hugh	Wed Jul 21 2010 10:08 AM
Re: Wave Looking Weaker This Morning	WesnWylie	Wed Jul 21 2010 09:58 AM
Re: Wave Looking Weaker This Morning	Hugh	Wed Jul 21 2010 08:57 AM
Re: Wave Looking Weaker This Morning	MikeC	Wed Jul 21 2010 08:37 AM
Re: Wave Looking Weaker This Morning	berrywr	Wed Jul 21 2010 08:04 AM
Re: 97L	Doombot!	Tue Jul 20 2010 11:38 PM
Re: 97L	danielw	Tue Jul 20 2010 11:32 PM
Re: 97L	MichaelA	Tue Jul 20 2010 10:46 PM
Re: 97L	Hugh	Tue Jul 20 2010 10:28 PM
Re: 97L	WeatherNut	Tue Jul 20 2010 09:46 PM
Re: 97L	MikeC	Tue Jul 20 2010 08:41 PM
Re: 97L	Jasonch	Tue Jul 20 2010 08:26 PM
Re: 97L	MikeC	Tue Jul 20 2010 07:42 PM
Re: 97L	WesnWylie	Tue Jul 20 2010 03:11 PM
Re: 97L	danielw	Tue Jul 20 2010 02:45 PM
Re: 97L	MichaelA	Tue Jul 20 2010 02:06 PM
Re: 97L	WesnWylie	Tue Jul 20 2010 01:46 PM
Re: Wave nearing the Yucatan Penninsula	Lamar-Plant City	Tue Jul 20 2010 01:44 PM
Re: Wave nearing the Yucatan Penninsula	LoisCane	Tue Jul 20 2010 12:30 PM
Wave nearing the Yucatan Penninsula	WesnWylie	Tue Jul 20 2010 12:11 PM
Re: 97L	danielw	Tue Jul 20 2010 10:41 AM
Re: 97L	MichaelA	Tue Jul 20 2010 10:11 AM
Re: 97L	MichaelA	Tue Jul 20 2010 10:06 AM
Re: Wave Northeast of Caribbean Worth Watching this Week	WesnWylie	Tue Jul 20 2010 09:46 AM
Re: 97L	Ed in Va	Tue Jul 20 2010 08:18 AM
Re: 97L	JoshuaK	Tue Jul 20 2010 03:42 AM
Re: 97L	Lamar-Plant City	Mon Jul 19 2010 11:48 PM
Re: 97L	Ed Dunham	Mon Jul 19 2010 06:48 PM
97L	Doombot!	Mon Jul 19 2010 04:23 PM
Re: Wave Northeast of Caribbean Worth Watching this Week	WesnWylie	Mon Jul 19 2010 04:05 PM
Re: Areas being Watched	JoshuaK	Mon Jul 19 2010 04:04 PM
Re: Areas being Watched	danielw	Mon Jul 19 2010 12:22 PM
Re: Areas being Watched	MikeC	Mon Jul 19 2010 10:47 AM
Re: Areas being Watched	danielw	Sat Jul 17 2010 03:41 PM
Re: Areas being Watched	Jasonch	Sat Jul 17 2010 01:56 PM
Re: Trough in the Gulf of Mexico	danielw	Fri Jul 16 2010 08:06 PM
Trough in the Gulf of Mexico	WesnWylie	Fri Jul 16 2010 02:08 PM
Re: Area in GOM off W FL	JoshuaK	Fri Jul 16 2010 12:23 PM
Re: Area in GOM off W FL	doug	Fri Jul 16 2010 08:34 AM
Re: Area in GOM off W FL	WesnWylie	Thu Jul 15 2010 06:07 PM
Area in GOM off W FL	berrywr	Thu Jul 15 2010 05:14 PM

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