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Archives 2010s >> 2010 News Talkbacks

berrywr
Weather Analyst

Reged:
Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL

Re: Wave Looking Weaker This Morning
Wed Jul 21 2010 10:32 PM

Good afternoon! The strong tropical wave as expected has become more disorganized as upper winds are not favorable for development. Surprisingly with the lone exception of San Juan there was no mention of the TUTT low...upper level cutoff low and shortwave just to the north and immediate west of the tropical wave. It is this ULL that has resulted in the wave becoming weak. There is considerable subsidence on the back side of the shortwave extending from this ULL.

The 12Z model package all all unanimous in this wave not closing off and it continuing west and west-northwest across FL in 24 to 36 hours and into the GOM tracking west to the TX/KA coast in 72 to 96 hours as the upper ridge over the SE USA stengthens and extends into the Atlantic with east to west flow across the Gulf states and FL.

A purely tropical depression/storm is out of the question for the near term, though one cannot rule out a hybrid.

There continues to remain the possibility that beyond this forecast window and the wave enters the GOM that the upper air will be more conducive for development.

An area I've been looking at is the huge plume of tropical moisture on water vapor satellite over the western GOM extending south to the Yucatan. That said, I haven't looked at that region in depth or pressures at the surface to comment in depth.

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Watching Two Systems	MikeC	Wed Jul 21 2010 10:32 PM
Re: July 22-00Z Model Package - Invest 97L	MichaelA	Thu Jul 22 2010 02:00 PM
Re: July 22-00Z Model Package - Invest 97L	MichaelA	Thu Jul 22 2010 10:33 AM
Re: July 22-00Z Model Package - Invest 98L	berrywr	Thu Jul 22 2010 05:17 AM
July 22-00Z Model Package - Invest 97L	berrywr	Thu Jul 22 2010 05:11 AM
Re: Watching Two Systems	WesnWylie	Thu Jul 22 2010 03:57 AM
Re: Watching Two Systems	Hugh	Thu Jul 22 2010 01:06 AM
Re: Watching Two Systems	WesnWylie	Thu Jul 22 2010 12:47 AM
Re: Watching Two Systems	k___g	Wed Jul 21 2010 11:48 PM
Re: Watching Two Systems	Hugh	Wed Jul 21 2010 11:45 PM
Re: Watching Two Systems	allan	Wed Jul 21 2010 11:37 PM
Re: Watching Two Systems	Hugh	Wed Jul 21 2010 11:20 PM
Re: Watching Two Systems	WesnWylie	Wed Jul 21 2010 11:13 PM
Re: Watching Two Systems	berrywr	Wed Jul 21 2010 10:56 PM
Re: Wave Looking Weaker This Morning	berrywr	Wed Jul 21 2010 10:38 PM
Re: Wave Looking Weaker This Morning	berrywr	Wed Jul 21 2010 10:32 PM
Re: Wave Looking Weaker This Morning	MikeC	Wed Jul 21 2010 10:22 PM
Re: Wave Looking Weaker This Morning	MikeC	Wed Jul 21 2010 10:10 PM
Re: Wave Looking Weaker This Morning	doug	Wed Jul 21 2010 08:30 PM
Re: Wave Looking Weaker This Morning	Evan Johnson	Wed Jul 21 2010 07:07 PM
Re: Wave Looking Weaker This Morning	B_from_NC	Wed Jul 21 2010 06:55 PM
Re: Wave Looking Weaker This Morning	MichaelA	Wed Jul 21 2010 06:44 PM
Re: Wave Looking Weaker This Morning	Doombot!	Wed Jul 21 2010 06:40 PM
Re: 97L	Evan Johnson	Wed Jul 21 2010 06:38 PM
Re: 97L	Storm Hunter	Wed Jul 21 2010 06:27 PM
Re: 97L	MichaelA	Wed Jul 21 2010 05:59 PM
Re: 97L	Hugh	Wed Jul 21 2010 05:52 PM
Re: 97L	danielw	Wed Jul 21 2010 05:44 PM
Re: 97L	Hugh	Wed Jul 21 2010 04:56 PM
Re: 97L	MikeC	Wed Jul 21 2010 04:24 PM
Re: Wave Looking Weaker This Morning	weathernet	Wed Jul 21 2010 04:23 PM
Re: Wave Looking Weaker This Morning	Hugh	Wed Jul 21 2010 03:58 PM
Re: Wave Looking Weaker This Morning	rgd	Wed Jul 21 2010 02:51 PM
Re: Wave Looking Weaker This Morning	Hugh	Wed Jul 21 2010 02:08 PM
Re: Wave Looking Weaker This Morning	WesnWylie	Wed Jul 21 2010 01:58 PM
Re: Wave Looking Weaker This Morning	Hugh	Wed Jul 21 2010 12:57 PM
Re: Wave Looking Weaker This Morning	MikeC	Wed Jul 21 2010 12:37 PM
Re: Wave Looking Weaker This Morning	berrywr	Wed Jul 21 2010 12:04 PM
Re: 97L	Doombot!	Wed Jul 21 2010 03:38 AM
Re: 97L	danielw	Wed Jul 21 2010 03:32 AM
Re: 97L	MichaelA	Wed Jul 21 2010 02:46 AM
Re: 97L	Hugh	Wed Jul 21 2010 02:28 AM
Re: 97L	WeatherNut	Wed Jul 21 2010 01:46 AM
Re: 97L	MikeC	Wed Jul 21 2010 12:41 AM
Re: 97L	Jasonch	Wed Jul 21 2010 12:26 AM
Re: 97L	MikeC	Tue Jul 20 2010 11:42 PM
Re: 97L	WesnWylie	Tue Jul 20 2010 07:11 PM
Re: 97L	danielw	Tue Jul 20 2010 06:45 PM
Re: 97L	MichaelA	Tue Jul 20 2010 06:06 PM
Re: 97L	WesnWylie	Tue Jul 20 2010 05:46 PM
Re: Wave nearing the Yucatan Penninsula	Lamar-Plant City	Tue Jul 20 2010 05:44 PM
Re: Wave nearing the Yucatan Penninsula	LoisCane	Tue Jul 20 2010 04:30 PM
Wave nearing the Yucatan Penninsula	WesnWylie	Tue Jul 20 2010 04:11 PM
Re: 97L	danielw	Tue Jul 20 2010 02:41 PM
Re: 97L	MichaelA	Tue Jul 20 2010 02:11 PM
Re: 97L	MichaelA	Tue Jul 20 2010 02:06 PM
Re: Wave Northeast of Caribbean Worth Watching this Week	WesnWylie	Tue Jul 20 2010 01:46 PM
Re: 97L	Ed in Va	Tue Jul 20 2010 12:18 PM
Re: 97L	JoshuaK	Tue Jul 20 2010 07:42 AM
Re: 97L	Lamar-Plant City	Tue Jul 20 2010 03:48 AM
Re: 97L	Ed Dunham	Mon Jul 19 2010 10:48 PM
97L	Doombot!	Mon Jul 19 2010 08:23 PM
Re: Wave Northeast of Caribbean Worth Watching this Week	WesnWylie	Mon Jul 19 2010 08:05 PM
Re: Areas being Watched	JoshuaK	Mon Jul 19 2010 08:04 PM
Re: Areas being Watched	danielw	Mon Jul 19 2010 04:22 PM
Re: Areas being Watched	MikeC	Mon Jul 19 2010 02:47 PM
Re: Areas being Watched	danielw	Sat Jul 17 2010 07:41 PM
Re: Areas being Watched	Jasonch	Sat Jul 17 2010 05:56 PM
Re: Trough in the Gulf of Mexico	danielw	Sat Jul 17 2010 12:06 AM
Trough in the Gulf of Mexico	WesnWylie	Fri Jul 16 2010 06:08 PM
Re: Area in GOM off W FL	JoshuaK	Fri Jul 16 2010 04:23 PM
Re: Area in GOM off W FL	doug	Fri Jul 16 2010 12:34 PM
Re: Area in GOM off W FL	WesnWylie	Thu Jul 15 2010 10:07 PM
Area in GOM off W FL	berrywr	Thu Jul 15 2010 09:14 PM

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