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Archives 2010s >> 2010 News Talkbacks

berrywr
Weather Analyst

Reged:
Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL

July 22-00Z Model Package - Invest 97L
Thu Jul 22 2010 05:11 AM

Good evening and early morning! The NHC downgraded from 70 percent to 40 percent the probability of 97L becoming a tropical depression.

Tonight there is an upper level low between 850 and 500 mbs located almost directly over the disturbance and an upper low at 300 and 200 mbs over the Northern Bahamas. NHC sampled extensively the area this evening and reported wind shear and dry air as the primary causes as to why the wave has not developed.

This upper level low is not vertically stacked as depicted at various levels this evening and the overall system has moved very little over the past 12 hours and appears to have deepened as water vapor imagery clearly shows an elongated north to south upper level low.

This ULL has resulted in wind shear aloft between 30 and 40 knots directly to the west of the system and continues to impact the system tonight.

There is strong thunderstorm activity underneath the upper level low but that is not unusual nor is it uncommon for depressions to develop under an upper level low.

I see nothing on tonight's upper level analysis and 21/18Z model run to suggest this system will develop into something serious though the track is through the oil slick and to LA.

The axis of the wave is right along this axis of dry/moisture axis and as long as this persists; 97L will remain a wave.

Conclusion....I cannot rule out this system may become a depression, but it's going to be slow and it's going to be in a hostile environment. It will have a better opportunity to develop once west of FL and the ULL leaves itself of the area.

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Watching Two Systems	MikeC	Thu Jul 22 2010 05:11 AM
Re: July 22-00Z Model Package - Invest 97L	MichaelA	Thu Jul 22 2010 02:00 PM
Re: July 22-00Z Model Package - Invest 97L	MichaelA	Thu Jul 22 2010 10:33 AM
Re: July 22-00Z Model Package - Invest 98L	berrywr	Thu Jul 22 2010 05:17 AM
July 22-00Z Model Package - Invest 97L	berrywr	Thu Jul 22 2010 05:11 AM
Re: Watching Two Systems	WesnWylie	Thu Jul 22 2010 03:57 AM
Re: Watching Two Systems	Hugh	Thu Jul 22 2010 01:06 AM
Re: Watching Two Systems	WesnWylie	Thu Jul 22 2010 12:47 AM
Re: Watching Two Systems	k___g	Wed Jul 21 2010 11:48 PM
Re: Watching Two Systems	Hugh	Wed Jul 21 2010 11:45 PM
Re: Watching Two Systems	allan	Wed Jul 21 2010 11:37 PM
Re: Watching Two Systems	Hugh	Wed Jul 21 2010 11:20 PM
Re: Watching Two Systems	WesnWylie	Wed Jul 21 2010 11:13 PM
Re: Watching Two Systems	berrywr	Wed Jul 21 2010 10:56 PM
Re: Wave Looking Weaker This Morning	berrywr	Wed Jul 21 2010 10:38 PM
Re: Wave Looking Weaker This Morning	berrywr	Wed Jul 21 2010 10:32 PM
Re: Wave Looking Weaker This Morning	MikeC	Wed Jul 21 2010 10:22 PM
Re: Wave Looking Weaker This Morning	MikeC	Wed Jul 21 2010 10:10 PM
Re: Wave Looking Weaker This Morning	doug	Wed Jul 21 2010 08:30 PM
Re: Wave Looking Weaker This Morning	Evan Johnson	Wed Jul 21 2010 07:07 PM
Re: Wave Looking Weaker This Morning	B_from_NC	Wed Jul 21 2010 06:55 PM
Re: Wave Looking Weaker This Morning	MichaelA	Wed Jul 21 2010 06:44 PM
Re: Wave Looking Weaker This Morning	Doombot!	Wed Jul 21 2010 06:40 PM
Re: 97L	Evan Johnson	Wed Jul 21 2010 06:38 PM
Re: 97L	Storm Hunter	Wed Jul 21 2010 06:27 PM
Re: 97L	MichaelA	Wed Jul 21 2010 05:59 PM
Re: 97L	Hugh	Wed Jul 21 2010 05:52 PM
Re: 97L	danielw	Wed Jul 21 2010 05:44 PM
Re: 97L	Hugh	Wed Jul 21 2010 04:56 PM
Re: 97L	MikeC	Wed Jul 21 2010 04:24 PM
Re: Wave Looking Weaker This Morning	weathernet	Wed Jul 21 2010 04:23 PM
Re: Wave Looking Weaker This Morning	Hugh	Wed Jul 21 2010 03:58 PM
Re: Wave Looking Weaker This Morning	rgd	Wed Jul 21 2010 02:51 PM
Re: Wave Looking Weaker This Morning	Hugh	Wed Jul 21 2010 02:08 PM
Re: Wave Looking Weaker This Morning	WesnWylie	Wed Jul 21 2010 01:58 PM
Re: Wave Looking Weaker This Morning	Hugh	Wed Jul 21 2010 12:57 PM
Re: Wave Looking Weaker This Morning	MikeC	Wed Jul 21 2010 12:37 PM
Re: Wave Looking Weaker This Morning	berrywr	Wed Jul 21 2010 12:04 PM
Re: 97L	Doombot!	Wed Jul 21 2010 03:38 AM
Re: 97L	danielw	Wed Jul 21 2010 03:32 AM
Re: 97L	MichaelA	Wed Jul 21 2010 02:46 AM
Re: 97L	Hugh	Wed Jul 21 2010 02:28 AM
Re: 97L	WeatherNut	Wed Jul 21 2010 01:46 AM
Re: 97L	MikeC	Wed Jul 21 2010 12:41 AM
Re: 97L	Jasonch	Wed Jul 21 2010 12:26 AM
Re: 97L	MikeC	Tue Jul 20 2010 11:42 PM
Re: 97L	WesnWylie	Tue Jul 20 2010 07:11 PM
Re: 97L	danielw	Tue Jul 20 2010 06:45 PM
Re: 97L	MichaelA	Tue Jul 20 2010 06:06 PM
Re: 97L	WesnWylie	Tue Jul 20 2010 05:46 PM
Re: Wave nearing the Yucatan Penninsula	Lamar-Plant City	Tue Jul 20 2010 05:44 PM
Re: Wave nearing the Yucatan Penninsula	LoisCane	Tue Jul 20 2010 04:30 PM
Wave nearing the Yucatan Penninsula	WesnWylie	Tue Jul 20 2010 04:11 PM
Re: 97L	danielw	Tue Jul 20 2010 02:41 PM
Re: 97L	MichaelA	Tue Jul 20 2010 02:11 PM
Re: 97L	MichaelA	Tue Jul 20 2010 02:06 PM
Re: Wave Northeast of Caribbean Worth Watching this Week	WesnWylie	Tue Jul 20 2010 01:46 PM
Re: 97L	Ed in Va	Tue Jul 20 2010 12:18 PM
Re: 97L	JoshuaK	Tue Jul 20 2010 07:42 AM
Re: 97L	Lamar-Plant City	Tue Jul 20 2010 03:48 AM
Re: 97L	Ed Dunham	Mon Jul 19 2010 10:48 PM
97L	Doombot!	Mon Jul 19 2010 08:23 PM
Re: Wave Northeast of Caribbean Worth Watching this Week	WesnWylie	Mon Jul 19 2010 08:05 PM
Re: Areas being Watched	JoshuaK	Mon Jul 19 2010 08:04 PM
Re: Areas being Watched	danielw	Mon Jul 19 2010 04:22 PM
Re: Areas being Watched	MikeC	Mon Jul 19 2010 02:47 PM
Re: Areas being Watched	danielw	Sat Jul 17 2010 07:41 PM
Re: Areas being Watched	Jasonch	Sat Jul 17 2010 05:56 PM
Re: Trough in the Gulf of Mexico	danielw	Sat Jul 17 2010 12:06 AM
Trough in the Gulf of Mexico	WesnWylie	Fri Jul 16 2010 06:08 PM
Re: Area in GOM off W FL	JoshuaK	Fri Jul 16 2010 04:23 PM
Re: Area in GOM off W FL	doug	Fri Jul 16 2010 12:34 PM
Re: Area in GOM off W FL	WesnWylie	Thu Jul 15 2010 10:07 PM
Area in GOM off W FL	berrywr	Thu Jul 15 2010 09:14 PM

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