11AM EDT UPDATE - 23 July 2010 At 11AM, Bonnie was located just offshore due east of Homestead, Florida, and was moving to the west northwest to northwest. Landfall should occur around Noon EDT. Fowey Rocks reported winds of 46mph gusting to 52mph so Tropical Storm status is confirmed. NHC forecasts a continued rapid motion to the west northwest. Bonnie remains very disorganized and could become an open wave in the Gulf of Mexico.
Active convection has persisted in a stationary area south of the Dominican Republic near 16N 72W. The area is currently under northerly shear, but the shear is expected to decrease quite a bit by Saturday evening. Just another area to watch. ED
7:00 AM EDT Update 23 July 2010 Bonnie is approaching Florida this morning, moving extremely fast for a storm at 18mph, and will be in and out fairly quick. It has remained weak overnight, and is barely a tropical storm.
Landfall appears to be between the middle/upper Keys and Florida City, with all of the convection/rain to the north of the center.
Rain will be seen in most of south Florida, and parts of Central Florida (more rain toward west Central Florida than east).
Once in the Gulf those in the Central to Eastern Gulf of Mexico will want to watch the progress of the system, but conditions appear to be hostile there as well which will likely keep Bonnie a Tropical Storm.
9:20 PM EDT Update 22 July 2010 Tropical Storm Bonnie is located just south of Great Exuma Island in the Bahamas, and is holding with a small core just as a minimal Tropical Storm at present.
There is an interesting interaction going on with the system an upper level low to moving toward the west, along with a ridge building in from the northwest. It's a bit of a race between getting pulled up further north and being kicked further west by the ridge building. As the upper level low moves away from it, more effects from the ridge to the northeast will be felt. So in short it has some chance to move a bit more northward, and then be kicked more northwest later. The core of the system will likely be kept small, so if there are any surprises it would likely be a result of that.
The center has relocated north of earlier projections and with these changes may landfall tomorrow in the south Florida mainland, likely in the upper keys and south of Miami. Most likely, Folks in Miami will experience wind and rain of low to mid Tropical Storm force winds, and north of there will get some wind and rain, but the storm will be moving rather rapidly across the state. Beyond that, it looks like eastern Louisiana or Mississippi may have to deal with the storm in the Gulf, but at this far out with the extremely complex interactions between the upper level low, ridge, and this system it has a very low confidence.
Overnight, because of the lack of visible satellite, following the apparent blowup in convection may not be indicative of where the center is. It could even lose it entirely overnight.
If you are in the Keys or south Florida I highly recommend to check up on the storm in the morning for anything that changes. Most likely you can expect a nasty, but entirely bearable day, and it appears that this should not be very Tornadic.
6:20 PM EDT Update 22 July 2010 Data from Aircraft reconnaissance has found enough winds to support upgrading TD#3 to Tropical Storm Bonnie. The second named storm of the 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season.
It is currently moving northwest at 14MPH, and the position is a bit further north than the 5PM Position, it is possible watches/warnings may be extended northward along the Florida Coastline later tonight.
11:00 AM EDT Update 22 July 2010 Tropical Depression 3 has formed, forecast track clips Key West midday tomorrow and enters the Gulf, nearing Western Louisiana later. Intensity is kept low for now.
A Tropical Storm Watch Has Been Issued for the East Coast of Florida From North of Golden Beach to Jupiter Inlet Including Lake Okeechobee.
Summary of Watches and Warnings in Effect...
A Tropical Storm Warning is in Effect For... * Central and Northwestern Bahamas * for the Florida East Coast from Golden Beach Southward Including The Entire Florida Keys and Florida Bay...and Along the West Coast Of Florida Northward to Bonita Beach
8:45 AM EDT Update 22 July 2010 Tropical Depression 3 Forms in the Bahamas.
Advisories on the system (as a depression or possible Tropical Storm) begin at 11AM, and watches/warnings will be issued for the Bahamas and South Florida at 11. Movement is generally west northwest.
Details to come closer to 11AM EDT.
There is also a 50% chance for the wave in the bay of campeche to become a depression as well, and may before the day is over. It would make landfall tomorrow night or Saturday in Northeastern Mexico.
Original Update This morning, the wave in the southeast Bahamas (97L) has survived, but is still being affected by, shear from an upper level low/TUTT to the northwest of the system. However, it is looking much better this morning and now has a 70% chance to develop into a depression or storm. In fact is is very likely the National hurricane center will begin advisories at 11.
In fact, it could become a depression or storm at any time today. Recon is scheduled to check it out this afternoon. Those in south Florida and the Keys will want to monitor it for any changes.
The low remained stronger than expected earlier in the week, and now is likely to keep it on the weaker side through today. There still is a 40% chance of development for this system, but it has little chance to go beyond a tropical depression or low end tropical storm even into the Gulf. Most all of the convection of the wave is on the east side, instead of near the axis of the wave. The system looks better this morning, and has a very good chance to develop into a depression or storm today.
Most likely it will remain weak and move near Cuba's north coast, and to the south of Florida, bringing some rain. If it does develop into a depression or storm, it will likely be closer to South Florida.
Once in the gulf the motion depends on how strong the storm gets. Central Gulf through the entire part of Louisiana is the highest chance right now. If the system stay weak throughout the gulf, it begins to enter Texas into the equation. If the system gains more strength than anticipated chances go up for further east. If it develops before nearing Florida, chances go up for the central Gulf.
98L is fighting time over water to develop, it has 40% chance of development before making landfall, probably bringing more rain to northeastern Mexico, that's already seen two systems this year.
TS Bonnie Makes Landfall Over Extreme South Florida
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