Given the still somewhat shallow system, I would assume to defer to the mid level BAM or possibly the deep layer BAM model. If convection can be maintained with a good CDO throughout the day, it would not at all be surprising for us to see a TS with 50/60mph traversing just south of the Fl. Keys. Conditions in the short term just don't seem all that condusive for rapid development, but then again we are dealing with a small inner core system so perhaps not out of the realm of possibility of approaching minimal hurricane intensity ( just unlikely though ).
Would be something if this upper low were to pinch off and really rapidly dive S.W. ahead of this system. Things would get interesting for sure. Given the smallish size of the LLC and fragile state, I believe the proximity between the shear axis and the system itself might prevent any rapid establishment of a larger upper anticyclone to occur over the depression ( Bonnie?).
Looking at the GFS this a.m, really looks to "ramp up" 98L before moving inland. Am guessing we will have a pair of "weak siblings" - Bonnie & Colin, on our hands by tonight. Finally and somewhat off topic, anyone happen to see what the 6Z GFS is concocting late term, out in the far E. Atlantic? Of course, this is very very long range.
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