Thanks to Mike I'm going to keep my comments brief; he's right...okay if he goes down, I go down with him... What's a few mph and a touch of organization equal...Tropical Storm Bonnie.
As I stated last night at this time there is a big upper level low Bonnie must contend with for the near term. This is truly an "Upper" low; it is above 500 milibars or about 18,000 feet up give or take a few feet; however is reflected quite well at 300 millibars or about 30,000 feet. This ULL is moving WSW as of this typing and streamers from convective cells continue south to north near Bonnie.
Wind shear analysis has a 30 to 50 knot bullseye over the central and north part of FL from southeast to northwest. I have some concerns that Bonnie in the near term will be affected more if this WSW movement continues.
Bonnie as of 12:15 am ET...is north of progged forecast track points by about 1 degree latitude.
It has been said many, many times before that intensity forecasting is still more an art form than science. The model guidance does not bring this system to a hurricane though one model does peak Bonnie at 60 knots. I'm not going to dare guess what Bonnie will do until she's away from FL and where the ULL and shear are when it re-emerges in the GOM.
Bonnie will be on the move...currently 14 mph and will be in deep easterly layered winds...a little rare for around here...but that hot upper ridge over the SE USA will have a say in Bonnie's future after the ULL gets out of the way.
Certainly this is not good news for the northern Gulf coast and well ahead of the system LA will once again have problems with coastal flooding due to a long fetch of easterly winds ahead of the system and as gradience tightens between the surface ridge and Bonnie.
Hurricane Bonnie? Maybe...but for the moment...the upper air isn't ideal for Bonnie to be much else if that.
I reinterate it is important with developing tropical systems that guidance, upper air observations, surface observations will not be in agreement in the near term. Bonnie's structure simply has not gained enough vertical depth for the models to grasp and there was no sampling of the environment tonight of the track in front of Bonnie as there was last night.
We'll have a better grasp of what remains of Bonnie after traversing the state of FL; if Bonnie moves at the clip she's moving now, it will be a short trip over land. Stay tune...
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