MikeC
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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Re: Quiet For Now
Tue Jul 27 2010 10:32 PM
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What's probably being overemphasized there is the long range models, this is the time of year you start to look much further east for development, but it's still a tad early for it. The African wave looks impressive now, but only really has a 30% chance to stay together once offshore, and if anything develops it would be much later. Long range models are just reflecting the normal potential for systems developing increasing into mid August, but it's usually just magnets for hype. In short, really reaching for something to watch. In short, if there were something else going on right now it would probably be mostly ignored.
In short, I don't expect the wave over Africa to do much, at least this one. If it persists over two-three days maybe. I don't expect much if anything this week, but things can change quickly.
Right now Central Atlantic Westward is the place to watch, and that grows further east into mid August. If any of the waves develop it wouldn't be anytime soon. The best course of action is to watch the convection persistence of an area over a 24 hour period or so, and if it stays mostly organized then it becomes worth watching, and then watch for trends. The area around 32W, if it were slightly further north would be such an area to watch for persistence. A surprising number of African waves fall apart after getting over water, but sometimes these reorganize much further west, but mostly they don't.
It's a good time to check on hurricane supplies though, because once it starts in August it may be pretty busy.
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