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#Beryl forms in the Central Atlantic and forecast to become a hurricane over the weekend, Hurricane and Tropical watches for some of the Windwards likely issued tomorrow.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 303 (Idalia) , Major: 303 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 303 (Idalia) Major: 303 (Idalia)
TS Beryl
ADV#2 4:00 am EDT
9.3N 43.6W
Wind: 40MPH
Pres: 1006mb
Moving:
W at 18 mph
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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


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Posts: 576
Re: Watching Two Areas
      Thu Jul 29 2010 09:46 PM


The 18z run of the tropical models are developing 90L more significantly now.

NCEP noted earlier in the day that there are 10 analogs for next week's expected synoptic scale pattern across the Atlantic Basin, and of those 10, 6 had a developed or developing tropical cyclone, 4 of which were in the western quadrant of the subtropical/tropical Atlantic Basin. This is in the general region where the models are moving 90L.

Currently convection is not as robust as the last 24 hours, however, there is interestingly a slightly more discerned cyclonic banding in appearance.

There is still just a 20% chanced assigned to this entity - for what ever method those chances are derived. What I personally like about this feature is that it emerged off the west coast of Africa (N of Sierra Leone) in an at least temporary abatement of the Saharan Air Layer contamination in the region, which had been fairly pervasive prior.

In terms of the outlook the only issue standing in the way of 90L may actually be easterly shear. A strengthening Azores high arming strongly across the breadth of the Basin argue for deepening easterly trades. Otherwise, the oceanic heat content is high, and if the trades are manageable, storm relative shear would be low.

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Watching Two Areas MikeCAdministrator Thu Jul 29 2010 09:46 PM
. * * Re: Watching Two Areas WesnWylie   Sun Aug 01 2010 01:10 AM
. * * Re: Watching Two Areas JoshuaK   Sun Aug 01 2010 12:22 AM
. * * Re: Watching Two Areas MikeCAdministrator   Sat Jul 31 2010 11:33 PM
. * * Re: Watching Two Areas JoshuaK   Sat Jul 31 2010 10:43 PM
. * * Re: Watching Two Areas danielwAdministrator   Sat Jul 31 2010 07:57 PM
. * * Re: Watching Two Areas Jasonch   Sat Jul 31 2010 07:57 PM
. * * Re: Watching Two Areas WeatherNut   Sat Jul 31 2010 04:25 PM
. * * Re: Watching Two Areas typhoon_tip   Thu Jul 29 2010 09:46 PM
. * * Re: Quiet For Now WeatherNut   Thu Jul 29 2010 04:57 PM
. * * Re: Quiet For Now WesnWylie   Thu Jul 29 2010 03:52 PM
. * * Re: Quiet For Now MichaelA   Thu Jul 29 2010 10:53 AM
. * * Re: Quiet For Now MikeCAdministrator   Thu Jul 29 2010 06:54 AM
. * * Re: Quiet For Now ncskywarn   Thu Jul 29 2010 04:44 AM
. * * Re: Quiet For Now Jane   Wed Jul 28 2010 07:04 PM
. * * Re: Quiet For Now Ed DunhamAdministrator   Wed Jul 28 2010 05:30 PM
. * * Re: Quiet For Now WeatherNut   Wed Jul 28 2010 03:59 PM
. * * Re: Quiet For Now allan   Wed Jul 28 2010 12:24 PM
. * * Re: Quiet For Now MichaelA   Wed Jul 28 2010 11:59 AM
. * * Re: Quiet For Now WesnWylie   Wed Jul 28 2010 10:31 AM
. * * Re: Quiet For Now Ed DunhamAdministrator   Tue Jul 27 2010 11:40 PM
. * * Re: Quiet For Now MikeCAdministrator   Tue Jul 27 2010 10:32 PM
. * * Re: Quiet For Now ChrisS   Tue Jul 27 2010 08:08 PM
. * * Re: Quiet For Now MikeCAdministrator   Tue Jul 27 2010 08:51 AM
. * * Re: Quiet For Now Ed in Va   Tue Jul 27 2010 08:31 AM
. * * Re: Quiet For Now Ed DunhamAdministrator   Mon Jul 26 2010 11:08 PM
. * * Re: Quiet For Now (6 PM Update, July 26) MichaelA   Mon Jul 26 2010 09:27 PM
. * * Invest 99L Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sun Jul 25 2010 02:27 PM
. * * Re: Maybe I'm all wet WesnWylie   Sun Jul 25 2010 01:41 PM
. * * Re: Maybe I'm all wet mwillis   Sun Jul 25 2010 01:33 PM
. * * Re: Maybe I'm all wet danielwAdministrator   Sun Jul 25 2010 07:40 AM
. * * Re: Maybe I'm all wet JoshuaK   Sat Jul 24 2010 11:14 PM
. * * Re: Maybe I'm all wet flanewscameraman   Sat Jul 24 2010 10:13 PM
. * * Re: Maybe I'm all wet stormtiger   Sat Jul 24 2010 08:21 PM
. * * Re: Very Sheared Bonnie Back over Water in the Gulf JoshuaK   Sat Jul 24 2010 05:29 PM
. * * Re: Very Sheared Bonnie Back over Water in the Gulf Storm Hunter   Fri Jul 23 2010 10:09 PM
. * * Re: Very Sheared Bonnie Back over Water in the Gulf Storm Hunter   Fri Jul 23 2010 09:54 PM
. * * Re: Very Sheared Bonnie Back over Water in the Gulf Storm Hunter   Fri Jul 23 2010 08:44 PM

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