Quote: They may be making the call based on microwave imagery, but convection seems to be on the decline at the moment, so it's really up in the air if they call it this afternoon, I still think it will be tomorrow before it becomes a depression, but if they do so early it won't matter all that much.
Look again. Convection is very impressive, and on the upswing. It's not clear to me if the convection is near the LLC, though. My guess is that the 8pm TWO will leave it at 80%, but with the way the NHC has been treating these things of late, it could go down to 60-70, or up to 90. I think they'll wait until sunrise to initiate advisories.
Update: 8pm TWO is out... and... they went with 90%, saying "a tropical depression could form at any time".
-------------------- Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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Re: Area in Central Atlantic May Develop over the Next Few Days
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