TD4 will have some problems strengthening due to dry air and high wind shear in its path caused by the TUTT near Bermuda. The TUTT stretches out a nice band of wind shear extending from north of the system to Western Caribbean. This should keep a damper on development to a Hurricane, though freaky things have happened and I'm not ruling out a minimal Hurricane. Conditions should remain somewhat conducive until it reaches the islands. Definitely a TS, but unsure on a Hurricane at this point due to dry air. I am 80% confident that TD4 will continue a WNW movement for the next 2-3 days. This should have it just skimming the islands and Puerto Rico. After that, about 4-5 days out is extremely uncertain and many scenarios can happen, including the storm catching a trough, moving out to sea. Again it is NOT set in stone that TD4 recurves and models will likely go from left ot right at times over the next few days until we get a consistent pattern., with the NAO becoming positive and the upward motion of the MJO coming back in to the big picture, which causes more ridging then troughs, I am not at all convinced this will go out to sea. It's just too early, I'd give it a good 2-3 days until we know what will happen. Attaching my first run on TD4 up above.
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