At day 5 in their forecast, NHC will note that their margin of error is 250 to 300 miles on average. Long Island is about 10 days away if it were to head that way. I cannot fathom what the margin of error would be at 10 days - perhaps as much as 1,000 miles in some situations.
Anyway, CFHC would suggest that you just continue to monitor the system and see how it evolves. Any 10-day forecast for any location, tropical or not, would not be a forecast - it would be wild speculation - and we would rather not get into that on this site. For this particular system there is no guarantee that it will even survive for another week. Glad to have you with us - browse through some of the posts from previous seasons and you'll get an idea of why CFHC is known as 'Hurricanes Without The Hype'. ED
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Re: Tropical Depression #4 Forms in Central Atlantic
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