THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED 60-90 N MI TO THE SOUTHWEST BASED ON THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION. IT IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF AND LIES TO THE LEFT OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS AND THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.2N 49.5W ABOUT 840 MI...1355 KM ESE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/HR MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES (24 mph...! out running the convection?) ~danielw
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