Colin Regenerates - FLHurricane.com

As of 8:32pm EDT NHC Advisories are now showing on the left sidebar. Advisory #8 was issued at 7:30pm EDT. I'll post the essential information here for those folowing the storm.

TROPICAL STORM COLIN TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042010
500 PM AST THU AUG 05 2010
...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT TROPICAL
STORM COLIN HAS STRENGTHENED...

AROUND 5 PM AST...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATED THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS IN TROPICAL STORM COLIN HAD INCREASED TO NEAR 60
MPH...WHICH IS SOONER THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST. THEREFORE AN
UPDATED INTENSITY FORECAST WILL BE ISSUED IN A SPECIAL ADVISORY BY
8 PM AST. THIS WILL SUPERCEDE THE REGULARLY SCHEDULED INTERMEDIATE
PUBLIC ADVISORY PRODUCT.

NOTE: DUE TO NWS COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEMS...NHC WEB PAGE AND
RECONNAISSANCE INFORMATION ARE UNABLE TO UPDATE.

SUMMARY OF 730 PM AST...2330 UTC...INFORMATION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.6N 66.2W
ABOUT 470 MI...755 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 330 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/BROWN
*********************************************

TROPICAL STORM COLIN SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042010
730 PM AST THU AUG 05 2010

...THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED TO PRIMARILY UPDATE THE
INTENSITY AND WIND RADII FORECASTS.

SHORTLY AFTER THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY HAD BEEN ISSUED...AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING TROPICAL STORM COLIN
REPORTED A 600-FT FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 71 KT ABOUT 14 NMI NORTHEAST
OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. IN ADDITION...A SURFACE PRESSURE OF 1005
MB WAS ALSO OBSERVED IN THE GENERAL VICINITY. IT IS UNCERTAIN IF
THESE VALUES WERE ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL MESOVORTEX LOCATED
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...WHICH WOULD NOT BE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE
LARGER-SCALE WIND FIELD. FOR THIS REASON...THE INTENSITY WAS
INITIALIZED AT 40 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH NEARBY SFMR WINDS.
HOWEVER...SINCE THE TIME OF THAT RECON REPORT...DEEP CONVECTION IN
THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF COLIN HAS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP CLOSER
TO THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER...WHICH JUSTIFIES INCREASING
THE INTENSITY TO 50 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF THE FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS
AND SFMR SURFACE WINDS. SINCE A FORECAST INTENSITY OF 50 KT WAS NOT
EXPECTED TO OCCUR UNTIL 48 HOURS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...A
SPECIAL ADVISORY WAS REQUIRED TO INCREASE THE INTENSITY AND TO
ADJUST THE INTENSITY FORECAST UPWARD DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
ALSO...DROPSONDE DATA INDICATES AN EXPANSION OF THE 34-KT WIND
RADII IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT WAS NECESSARY.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST OR REASONING
WERE MADE.

INTERNET PROBLEMS WILL PREVENT THE NHC WEB SITE FROM BEING UPDATED
AT THIS TIME. PLEASE SEE WEATHER.GOV FOR ADVISORY TEXT PRODUCTS.
******************************************************

Asterisks denote separate product excerpts~danielw

I'm not sure if this has anything to do with the earlier data outage... but it could delay the model runs tonight. Just a possibility. Only anomaly message that I could find in the system.

NOUS42 KWNO 052048
ADMNFD
SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP AVIATION WEATHER CENTER KANSAS CITY MO
2048 UTC THU AUG 05 2010 ( 4:48pm EDT transmission time)

BACKUP OF SDM/NCO/NCEP OPERATIONS IS IN EFFECT BY THE AVIATION
WEATHER CENTER IN KANSAS CITY MO. NCEP TOOK A POWER HIT THAT CUT
OFF CONNECTIVITY WITH THEM. PHONES AND ELECTRIC ARE DOWN. NO
ESTIMATED TIME FOR RECOVERY AT THIS TIME.

Edited by danielw (Fri Aug 06 2010 01:16 AM)

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