TD Colin Almost History - Invest 94L Forms Off Florida East Coast

Excerpts from various NWS Morning Forecast Discussions:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
248 AM CDT SUN AUG 8 2010

MODELING CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AN INVERTED TROUGH ALOFT WITH A BROAD
AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS ON LATER
TODAY OR TOMORROW THAT MOVES WEST INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO OFFSHORE
OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA ON TUESDAY THEN TRACKS NORTHWEST TOWARDS
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING ON
WEDNESDAY WITH NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS. SHOULD THIS AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOP AS CURRENT MODELING SUGGESTS...IT WILL BE MONITORED
CLOSELY FOR SIGNS OF FURTHER TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
418 AM EDT SUN AUG 8 2010

THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE MOST RECENT SUITE OF MODEL
GUIDANCE THAT THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE SOUTHWEST TODAY AND TONIGHT AND COULD PASS ACROSS SOUTH AND
CENTRAL FLORIDA ON MONDAY...WITH A SURFACE LOW POSSIBLY FORMING AS
THE TROUGH DEEPENS. THIS SCENARIO CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN HIGH
CHANCES OF CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON MONDAY. THE GUIDANCE
THEN SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST INTO THE
EASTERN GULF ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND CONTINUES TO FORM A
SURFACE LOW...MAINTAINING VERY MOIST CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
WITH A HIGH CHANCE OF CONVECTION.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
436 AM CDT SUN AUG 8 2010

MONDAY NIGHT WOULD BE A HARBINGER OF RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER. A
DECREASE OF WATER VAPOR AVERAGES FROM 1000-500 MB IS EXPECTED TO
COMMENCE OVER THE AREA AS CYCLOGENESIS BEGINS OVER THE OLD FRONT IN
THE NE GMEX AND THE RESULTANT LOW MOVES WEST. WE NOTE THAT THESE
TYPES OF LOWS CAN SOMETIMES ACHIEVE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.
MOISTURE POOLED ALONG THE SOUTHWARD DRIFTING FRONT WILL MAINTAIN A
DEEP LAYER OF AVAILABLE WATER VAPOR, RH BEING BETWEEN 60 AND 70
PERCENT, OVER THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
INSTABILITY OFFSHORE WILL GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GULF DURING THE MORNINGS, WITH SUNLIGHT
PROVIDING THE INSTABILITY OVER LAND TO BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY. TUESDAY AFTERNOONS. AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE GULF, RELATIVELY DRY AIR FROM
THE PIEDMONT REGION WILL BE DRAWN OVER THE AREA AS IT ROTATES AROUND
THE AREA OF CYCLOGENESIS ON TUESDAY.

Edited by danielw (Sun Aug 08 2010 11:16 AM)

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