TD Colin Almost History - Invest 94L Forms Off Florida East Coast

Thanks,

CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT SUN 08 AUGUST 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 09/1100Z TO 10/1100Z AUGUST 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-070 CORRECTION

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL
INVEST IN E. GULF NEAR 26.5N 83.5W AT 10/1800
*********************************************
MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
820 AM EDT SUN AUG 08 2010

SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE MODELS SINCE THIS TIME YESTERDAY WITH
THE LOW EXPECTED TO PINCH OFF THE FRONTAL TROUGH OVER CENTRAL
FLORIDA. THE CMC..ECMWF...AND UKMET ALL SHOW A MUCH MORE
ORGANIZED LOW PRES SYSTEM DEEPENING OVER THE EASTERN GULF MON
AND MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARD LOUISIANA BY THU COMPARED TO
THEIR RUNS THIS TIME YESTERDAY. THE GFS IS SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER
AND FARTHER E WITH THE TRACK IN THE GULF...BUT IT HAS BEEN
SLOWLY TRENDING TOWARD THE OTHER MODELS THE LAST FEW DAYS. THE
HPC/NHC NOON MEDIUM RANGE CALL SAT CALLED FOR A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS TRACK WHICH CARRIES A TUE MORNING LOW
POSITION NEAR 29N82W AND BRIEFLY MOVES IT INTO THE FAR NE GULF
BEFORE CARRYING IT INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N85W WED
MORNING. THESE POINTS WERE TWEAKED TOWARD THE CONSENSUS OF THE
ECMWF...UKMET...AND CMC WHICH WERE FARTHER SOUTHWEST WITH THE
TRACK AND ALLOWED THE LOW MORE TIME OVER THE GULF WATERS.

EARLY MORNING OBSERVATIONS OVER NORTH FLORIDA SHOW A CLEAR WIND
SHIFT SUGGESTING THE PASSAGE OF A FRONTAL TROUGH. THE SATELLITE
SIGNATURE NEAR BUOY 41010 THIS MORNING SUGGESTS THERE MAY BE A
WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE MODELS SUGGEST THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A MID LEVEL LOW SOMEWHERE OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA
TONIGHT OR MON...BUT THEY ARE NOT SURE OF THE DETAILS. BY
TUE...THE UKMET...ECMWF...AND CMC COME INTO EXCELLENT AGREEMENT
ON A RETROGRADING AND DEEPENING LOW PRES SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO BORN FROM THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONTAL TROUGH
WHILE THE GFS IS WEAKER AND MORE NORTHERLY WITH THE SYSTEM. THE
GFS HAS BEEN PLAYING CATCH UP HERE. GIVEN THE CURRENT SATELLITE
IMAGERY...IT APPEARS THE ECMWF HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON THE
DEVELOPMENT NEAR FLORIDA FOR NOW. PLEASE SEE THE DISCUSSION IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ON THIS SYSTEM.
(contents in the first paragraph)

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/NHC/MIMATS

Edited by danielw (Sun Aug 08 2010 11:37 AM)

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