TD Colin Almost History - Invest 94L Forms Off Florida East Coast

As of 09/0600Z - Surface Analysis has a frontal system with a NW-SE axis extending from AR through S MS, extreme SE LA into the GOM where a low is analyzed near 27N 86W in the convective complex in the GOM to across Central FL with a weak low pressure (94L) well offshore. This low is progged to move SW towards Daytona Beach, FL by Monday night.

Wind Shear analysis has winds north to south between 20 and 30 knots from W FL to a bullseye of 30 knot winds over the Bahamas; however very light shear near the first frontal low with convection being generated.

There is an upper level low depicted at 850 mbs over the eastern coastline of FL to the Central Bahamas at 700 mbs and 500 mbs and in the SE Bahamas at 300 mbs and higher. This entire upper level low and axis is inverted generally along a north to south axis and models move this feature west towards LA in 72 to 96 hours.

Other features - Thee is an upper level low centered over San Antonio, TX. This feature was near the Bay of Campeche a few days ago and continues to move NNW at this time. This upper low is interacting with an old frontal boundary mentioned above over TX, OK, AR.

Mid Continental upper ridge remains anchored over TX and OK with ULL beneath it. Ridge axis extends generally along 90W longitude and south to thd Yucatan.

East coast longwave trough is progressing eastward and extends to offshore NC/SC border and from there inverts into the cutoff low mentioned above.

I have doubts about 94L being tropical...at this time. The proximity of the ULL may in fact be only a surface reflection; however climatology and dying frontal systems in the GOM and Atlantic Ocean do birth tropical cyclones. There is a great deal of subsidence and dry air behind the east coast trough.

The problem I have with 94L is the ULL is forecast to travel towards LA over the next few days. While tropical cyclones can form under ULL they don't do well with a ULL riding shotgun. Shear between upper ridges and upper lows are the main concern and I would like to get a gauge on where that ULL over the Bahamas is going.

Last year the numbers were down due to a chaotic atmosphere and a gazillion TUTT lows and I'm looking at the same thing again this year.

I would be remiss if I didn't mention a kind word about Ed, I share his opinion about the atmosphere being as chaotic this year as it were last year. There are a lot of upper level lows in the Tropics once again this year and upper level lows mean gradience and thus shear.

The area I believe that bears watching is in the Gulf of Mexico right now and the frontal low on the front near 27N 86W.

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"

Edited by berrywr (Mon Aug 09 2010 06:21 AM)

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