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Archives 2010s >> 2010 News Talkbacks

danielwAdministrator
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Reged:
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
94L Recon
      Wed Aug 11 2010 09:27 AM

Recon is currently flying TD 5 and I don't see much of a change in the data from yesterday.
I did see a 2500 ft flight level wind of 37 mph at 0726Z about 70 miles SSW of tampa. That would be in the NE Quadrant, where the highest winds would normally be found.
Recon is currently flying a leg to the west of the Center at 5000 ft but the winds are less than 10 mph at present.
Now for the Good News?

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052010
500 AM EDT WED AUG 11 2010

SATELLITE IMAGERY...RADAR DATA...AND REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THE DEPRESSION HAS NOT
CHANGED ITS ORGANIZATION SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. CONVECTION HAS
ERODED CONSIDERABLY...AS HAS THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION...WHICH IS
LIKELY DUE TO COOL DOWNDRAFTS CAUSED BY THE ENTRAINMENT OF DRY
MID-LEVEL AIR TO THE WEST OF THE CYCLONE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
BEING HELD AT A GENEROUS 30 KT BASED ON SURFACE OBS OF 25-27 KT IN
SOME OF THE OUTER RAINBANDS AND A FEW UNCONTAMINATED SFMR WINDS OF
25 KT MEASURED BY THE RECON AIR AIRCRAFT....

ALTHOUGH THE DEPRESSION IS LACKING CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AT THIS
TIME...THE OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE SUPPORTS THE
REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION LATER TODAY AFTER THE DRY MID-LEVEL AIR
HAS MIXED AND THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD HAS RECOVERED. NONE OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS ARE BULLISH ON THIS SYSTEM BECOMING MUCH STRONGER
THAN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY..DESPITE A VERY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
FLOW PATTERN THAT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST BY
36-48 HOURS. THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS DROP THE PRESSURE TO 986 AND
968 MB...RESPECTIVELY SHORTLY AFTER LANDFALL...AND THE HWRF MODEL
IS FORECASTING THE CYCLONE TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH RIGHT AT
LANDFALL. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE VARIOUS
INTENSITY MODELS AND IS ONLY SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=TCDAT5&max=61

That was the bad news.

Pressure wind relationship formula would equal 99 mph for the GFDL 986mb and 107 mph for the HWRF 968 mb Forecast.
These are my interpolations of the pressure wind relationship with respect to the Forecast Models.
They somewhat mimic the Saffir- Simpson Hurricane Scale but are purely mathematical references for the Maximum Possible Wind Speeds.~danielw

Use current NHC and NWS forecast for planning purposes~danielw

Edited by danielw (Wed Aug 11 2010 09:33 AM)

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Tropical Depression 5 Falls Apart Ed DunhamAdministrator Wed Aug 11 2010 09:27 AM
. * * Re: Nothing Happening Yet WeatherNut   Fri Aug 13 2010 01:47 AM
. * * Re: Nothing Happening Yet Fairhopian   Thu Aug 12 2010 09:43 PM
. * * Re: Nothing Happening Yet Storm Hunter   Thu Aug 12 2010 01:16 AM
. * * Re: Nothing Happening Yet WeatherNut   Wed Aug 11 2010 10:21 PM
. * * Re: Nothing Happening Yet JoshuaK   Wed Aug 11 2010 09:45 PM
. * * Re: Nothing Happening Yet Storm Hunter   Wed Aug 11 2010 09:15 PM
. * * Re: Nothing Happening Yet MichaelA   Wed Aug 11 2010 08:56 PM
. * * Say Goodnight TD5! berrywr   Wed Aug 11 2010 08:56 PM
. * * Re: Nothing Happening Yet Storm Hunter   Wed Aug 11 2010 08:54 PM
. * * Re: Nothing Happening Yet MichaelA   Wed Aug 11 2010 08:50 PM
. * * Re: Nothing Happening Yet danielwAdministrator   Wed Aug 11 2010 08:43 PM
. * * Re: Nothing Happening Yet MichaelA   Wed Aug 11 2010 08:32 PM
. * * Re: Nothing Happening Yet WesnWylie   Wed Aug 11 2010 08:12 PM
. * * Re: Nothing Happening Yet Storm Hunter   Wed Aug 11 2010 08:10 PM
. * * Re: Nothing Happening Yet MichaelA   Wed Aug 11 2010 08:02 PM
. * * Re: Nothing Happening Yet MichaelA   Wed Aug 11 2010 07:09 PM
. * * Re: Nothing Happening Yet danielwAdministrator   Wed Aug 11 2010 07:00 PM
. * * Re: Nothing Happening Yet danielwAdministrator   Wed Aug 11 2010 06:21 PM
. * * Re: Nothing Happening Yet berrywr   Wed Aug 11 2010 05:32 PM
. * * Re: Nothing Happening Yet Ed in Va   Wed Aug 11 2010 05:09 PM
. * * Re: Nothing Happening Yet WeatherNut   Wed Aug 11 2010 04:19 PM
. * * Re: Nothing Happening Yet danielwAdministrator   Wed Aug 11 2010 04:02 PM
. * * Re: Nothing Happening Yet scottsvb   Wed Aug 11 2010 03:55 PM
. * * Re: Nothing Happening Yet danielwAdministrator   Wed Aug 11 2010 03:42 PM
. * * Re: Nothing Happening Yet WesnWylie   Wed Aug 11 2010 03:38 PM
. * * Re: Nothing Happening Yet berrywr   Wed Aug 11 2010 03:25 PM
. * * Re: Nothing Happening Yet danielwAdministrator   Wed Aug 11 2010 03:07 PM
. * * Re: Nothing Happening Yet MichaelA   Wed Aug 11 2010 02:59 PM
. * * Re: Nothing Happening Yet danielwAdministrator   Wed Aug 11 2010 02:44 PM
. * * Re: Nothing Happening Yet MichaelA   Wed Aug 11 2010 02:40 PM
. * * Nothing Happening Yet Ed DunhamAdministrator   Wed Aug 11 2010 02:20 PM
. * * Re: 94L Recon Hugh   Wed Aug 11 2010 01:53 PM
. * * Re: 94L Recon MichaelA   Wed Aug 11 2010 01:24 PM
. * * Re: 94L Recon doug   Wed Aug 11 2010 01:22 PM
. * * Re: 94L Recon danielwAdministrator   Wed Aug 11 2010 01:12 PM
. * * Re: 94L Recon MichaelA   Wed Aug 11 2010 01:10 PM
. * * Re: 94L Recon Hugh   Wed Aug 11 2010 12:49 PM
. * * Re: 94L Recon MichaelA   Wed Aug 11 2010 12:32 PM
. * * Re: 94L Recon Hugh   Wed Aug 11 2010 11:53 AM
. * * 94L Recon danielwAdministrator   Wed Aug 11 2010 09:27 AM
. * * Re: 94L - Beginning to Organize Ed DunhamAdministrator   Wed Aug 11 2010 04:06 AM
. * * Re: 94L - Beginning to Organize Storm Hunter   Wed Aug 11 2010 03:46 AM
. * * Re: 94L - Beginning to Organize Lamar-Plant City   Wed Aug 11 2010 02:46 AM
. * * Re: 94L - Beginning to Organize Storm Hunter   Wed Aug 11 2010 02:36 AM
. * * Re: 94L - Beginning to Organize Hugh   Wed Aug 11 2010 02:02 AM
. * * Re: 94L - Beginning to Organize Storm Hunter   Wed Aug 11 2010 01:54 AM
. * * Re: 94L - Beginning to Organize Hugh   Wed Aug 11 2010 01:12 AM
. * * Re: 94L - Beginning to Organize MikeCAdministrator   Wed Aug 11 2010 01:00 AM
. * * Re: 94L - Beginning to Organize lonelymike   Wed Aug 11 2010 12:32 AM
. * * Re: 94L - Beginning to Organize Storm Hunter   Tue Aug 10 2010 11:37 PM
. * * Re: 94L - Beginning to Organize Hugh   Tue Aug 10 2010 11:01 PM
. * * Re: 94L - Beginning to Organize MichaelA   Tue Aug 10 2010 11:00 PM
. * * Re: 94L - Beginning to Organize MikeCAdministrator   Tue Aug 10 2010 10:57 PM
. * * Re: 94L - Beginning to Organize Storm Hunter   Tue Aug 10 2010 10:49 PM
. * * Re: 94L - Beginning to Organize MichaelA   Tue Aug 10 2010 10:41 PM
. * * Re: 94L - Beginning to Organize MikeCAdministrator   Tue Aug 10 2010 10:13 PM
. * * Re: 94L - Beginning to Organize berrywr   Tue Aug 10 2010 09:44 PM
. * * Re: 94L - Beginning to Organize WeatherNut   Tue Aug 10 2010 09:02 PM
. * * Re: 94L - Beginning to Organize WesnWylie   Tue Aug 10 2010 09:00 PM
. * * Re: 94L - Beginning to Organize Storm Hunter   Tue Aug 10 2010 08:56 PM
. * * Re: 94L - Beginning to Organize Storm Hunter   Tue Aug 10 2010 08:43 PM
. * * Re: 94L - Beginning to Organize WeatherNut   Tue Aug 10 2010 08:37 PM
. * * Re: 94L - Beginning to Organize MichaelA   Tue Aug 10 2010 08:36 PM
. * * Re: 94L - Beginning to Organize MichaelA   Tue Aug 10 2010 08:32 PM
. * * Re: 94L - Beginning to Organize Storm Hunter   Tue Aug 10 2010 08:27 PM
. * * Re: 94L - Beginning to Organize Storm Hunter   Tue Aug 10 2010 08:20 PM
. * * Re: 94L - Beginning to Organize Lamar-Plant City   Tue Aug 10 2010 08:05 PM
. * * Re: 94L - Beginning to Organize Storm Hunter   Tue Aug 10 2010 07:48 PM
. * * Re: 94L - Beginning to Organize MichaelA   Tue Aug 10 2010 07:47 PM
. * * Re: 94L - Beginning to Organize Storm Hunter   Tue Aug 10 2010 07:45 PM
. * * Re: 94L - Beginning to Organize MichaelA   Tue Aug 10 2010 07:09 PM
. * * Re: 94L - Beginning to Organize berrywr   Tue Aug 10 2010 07:06 PM
. * * Re: 94L - Beginning to Organize MichaelA   Tue Aug 10 2010 06:45 PM
. * * Re: 94L - Beginning to Organize danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 10 2010 06:42 PM
. * * Re: 94L - Beginning to Organize berrywr   Tue Aug 10 2010 06:26 PM
. * * Re: 94L - Beginning to Organize Storm Hunter   Tue Aug 10 2010 06:07 PM
. * * Re: 94L - Beginning to Organize Storm Hunter   Tue Aug 10 2010 05:57 PM
. * * Re: 94L - Beginning to Organize WesnWylie   Tue Aug 10 2010 05:54 PM
. * * Re: 94L - Beginning to Organize WeatherNut   Tue Aug 10 2010 05:28 PM
. * * Re: 94L - Beginning to Organize WeatherNut   Tue Aug 10 2010 05:21 PM
. * * Re: 94L - Beginning to Organize RobM   Tue Aug 10 2010 05:16 PM
. * * 94L danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 10 2010 05:13 PM
. * * Re: 94L - Beginning to Organize hogrunr   Tue Aug 10 2010 05:09 PM
. * * Re: 94L - Beginning to Organize WesnWylie   Tue Aug 10 2010 04:46 PM
. * * Re: 94L - Beginning to Organize MichaelA   Tue Aug 10 2010 04:21 PM
. * * Re: 94L - Beginning to Organize JoshuaK   Tue Aug 10 2010 02:50 PM
. * * 94L - Beginning to Organize berrywr   Tue Aug 10 2010 05:05 AM
. * * Re: Sputtering Along - But No Ignition berrywr   Tue Aug 10 2010 04:30 AM
. * * Re: Sputtering Along - But No Ignition metwannabe   Tue Aug 10 2010 02:55 AM
. * * Re: Sputtering Along - But No Ignition Storm Hunter   Tue Aug 10 2010 02:17 AM

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