Recon is currently flying TD 5 and I don't see much of a change in the data from yesterday. I did see a 2500 ft flight level wind of 37 mph at 0726Z about 70 miles SSW of tampa. That would be in the NE Quadrant, where the highest winds would normally be found. Recon is currently flying a leg to the west of the Center at 5000 ft but the winds are less than 10 mph at present. Now for the Good News?
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052010 500 AM EDT WED AUG 11 2010
SATELLITE IMAGERY...RADAR DATA...AND REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THE DEPRESSION HAS NOT CHANGED ITS ORGANIZATION SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. CONVECTION HAS ERODED CONSIDERABLY...AS HAS THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION...WHICH IS LIKELY DUE TO COOL DOWNDRAFTS CAUSED BY THE ENTRAINMENT OF DRY MID-LEVEL AIR TO THE WEST OF THE CYCLONE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT A GENEROUS 30 KT BASED ON SURFACE OBS OF 25-27 KT IN SOME OF THE OUTER RAINBANDS AND A FEW UNCONTAMINATED SFMR WINDS OF 25 KT MEASURED BY THE RECON AIR AIRCRAFT....
ALTHOUGH THE DEPRESSION IS LACKING CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AT THIS TIME...THE OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE SUPPORTS THE REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION LATER TODAY AFTER THE DRY MID-LEVEL AIR HAS MIXED AND THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD HAS RECOVERED. NONE OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE BULLISH ON THIS SYSTEM BECOMING MUCH STRONGER THAN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY..DESPITE A VERY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN THAT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST BY 36-48 HOURS. THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS DROP THE PRESSURE TO 986 AND 968 MB...RESPECTIVELY SHORTLY AFTER LANDFALL...AND THE HWRF MODEL IS FORECASTING THE CYCLONE TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH RIGHT AT LANDFALL. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE VARIOUS INTENSITY MODELS AND IS ONLY SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=TCDAT5&max=61
That was the bad news.
Pressure wind relationship formula would equal 99 mph for the GFDL 986mb and 107 mph for the HWRF 968 mb Forecast. These are my interpolations of the pressure wind relationship with respect to the Forecast Models. They somewhat mimic the Saffir- Simpson Hurricane Scale but are purely mathematical references for the Maximum Possible Wind Speeds.~danielw
Use current NHC and NWS forecast for planning purposes~danielw
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