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Invest 94L just northeast of the ABC islands in the Caribbean moving west, 20% development chance. Another area near the Cabo Verde islands has a 20% chance to develop over the next 7 days.

Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 301 (Idalia) , Major: 301 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 301 (Idalia) Major: 301 (Idalia)

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Archives 2010s >> 2010 Forecast Lounge

Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker

Reged:
Posts: 383
Loc: Plant City, Florida

Re: Too soon?
Thu Aug 12 2010 11:17 AM

If you look at a couple of recently active years you find that you don't have to have a bunch of 'early' storms to make it an active year. In 2004, we were only to TS Earl at this point in the season. Yes, Charley had been a bad storm already making landfall on Aug 14, but it hadn't been a very active season to that point. Now in 2005 (which was among the most active EVER) we WERE already to Irene in this part of August. So an argument could be made that we are behind that curve. Certainly there is a LOT of season left to go and the most active times are still ahead of us....HOWEVER, it is also true that the farther we go along without getting some systems lined up in the Atlantic, the harder it will be to meet those very high predictions. I must also note that Ed was one of the few with predictions on the low side of those given by the 'experts' and he is looking pretty good so far.

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2023 Season Prediction: 17/6/2

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Too soon?	Doombot!	Thu Aug 12 2010 11:17 AM
Re: Too soon?	cieldumort	Sun Sep 12 2010 02:58 PM
Unofficially TD5 became a Tropical Depression Thursday	berrywr	Fri Aug 13 2010 12:12 AM
Re: Too soon?	Ed Dunham	Wed Aug 11 2010 11:31 PM
Re: Too soon?	Ed Dunham	Thu Aug 12 2010 11:26 AM
Re: Too soon?	berrywr	Fri Aug 13 2010 12:22 AM
Re: Too soon?	Tazmanian93	Thu Aug 12 2010 12:37 PM
Re: Too soon?	Ed Dunham	Thu Aug 12 2010 06:45 PM
Re: Too soon?	Doombot!	Thu Aug 12 2010 10:08 PM
Re: Too soon?	Ed Dunham	Fri Aug 13 2010 01:31 AM
Re: Too soon?	Lamar-Plant City	Fri Aug 13 2010 10:54 AM
Re: Too soon?	MichaelA	Fri Aug 13 2010 11:45 AM
Re: Too soon?	ChrisS	Thu Sep 09 2010 07:35 AM
Re: Too soon?	Ed Dunham	Sun Sep 12 2010 12:18 PM
Admin Note	Ed Dunham	Sun Sep 12 2010 01:02 PM
Re: Too soon?	MichaelA	Thu Sep 09 2010 02:28 PM
Re: Too soon?	ChrisS	Sat Sep 11 2010 09:04 PM
Re: Too soon?	cieldumort	Sun Sep 12 2010 01:36 AM
Re: Too soon?	ChrisS	Sun Sep 12 2010 11:05 AM
Igor's path	ftlaudbob	Fri Sep 10 2010 05:01 PM
Re: Too soon?	MichaelA	Thu Aug 12 2010 09:41 AM
Re: Too soon?	Lamar-Plant City	Thu Aug 12 2010 11:17 AM

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