To borrow a few lines from MythBusters - Everybody take a look at the 14/00Z global models package and ask yourself - Busted or Plausible? I think the GFS is a bit overdone, but the ECMWF which has been very, very good this season along with every model I looked at put this low back in GOM moving it south starting tomorrow. This morning it looks very good on satellite imagery despite appearing a bit elongated. It even has some banding.
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Remnants of TD5 - Are the Models Wrong?
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